Sydney to miss building targets by 150,000 homes: UDIA's UDIA National Housing Pipeline
The findings of the UDIA National Housing Pipeline ® (NHP) - NSW Report show that only 171,400 homes are forecast to be completed during the five-year Housing Accord period.
This represents a shortfall of 150,600 homes across the Sydney Megaregion.
“A shortfall of 150,600 homes should not be accepted and requires immediate interventions from the NSW Government to enhance housing supply,” said Stuart Ayres, UDIA NSW Chief Executive Officer.
The NHP forecast is a combination of UDIA’s developer intentions survey, CoreLogic’s Cordell database, and the Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure’s Sydney Housing Supply Forecast.
The timing of the report, being released early in the Housing Accord period, provides Government time to implement additional interventions to remove constraints and increase the amount of homes the industry can deliver across the Accord period.
"Waiting any longer before taking corrective action on housing supply, will only ensure more people are denied an opportunity for a place to call home” Ayres added.
Findings show that 97 per cent of potential homes are currently not development ready. The NHP reveals the reasons why we are expected to fall short, and where opportunities exist to unlock housing. The three main factors impacting housing supply over the next five years are:
- A slow planning system. 42 per cent of potential homes are awaiting at least one approval determination before development can commence.
- A lack of enabling infrastructure. 30 per cent of potential homes are held up by a lack of committed, funded, or completed enabling infrastructure (water, power, sewer, and roads).
- Environmental constraints. Only 10 per cent of the Sydney Megaregion’s residentially zoned land is vacant and environmentally unconstrained (e.g., not flood impacted, bush fire prone etc.).
Previous UDIA research has highlighted feasibility challenges, which means that the Low and Mid Rise Reforms and TODs are unlikely to fill the shortfall. This demonstrates that further Government interventions will be required to increase housing supply.
UDIA acknowledges the housing supply programs underway by the NSW Government and intends for this report and its recommendations, to be a ready-made action plan for Government to collaborate with industry to improve housing delivery.
“Meeting our housing objectives will not be resolved by one lever alone," Ayres said.
"We need to see a diversity of typologies, increased investment in enabling infrastructure, and the Government genuinely prioritising housing supply."