NSW stamp duty stopping market activity: RBA
The reluctance of many home owners to trade up homes partly stems from increases in stamp duty rates, an RBA study suggests.
It noted in New South Wales and Victoria, the housing price thresholds at which higher rates of stamp duty apply have not been changed for a number of years.
"As housing prices have risen, more buyers have fallen into the higher stamp duty brackets, acting as a disincentive to purchase housing," the report says.
In New South Wales the stamp duty paid on a median-priced home has grown to around 25% of annual disposable income per household, from close to 10% in 1991.
The report looked at housing turnover.
Another consideration taking effect has been home owners unwilling to borrow more because growth in labour income has slowed.
Nominal labour income has grown at an average annual rate of 2.7% over the past two years, compared with a decade average of 6.2%, it noted adding the widespread expectation was that wage growth will remain subdued for a time.
Moreover, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey suggests that the share of households expecting more unemployment a year ahead has been at above-average levels since late 2011, which is an unusually long time by the historical standards of the survey.
Housing turnover and loan approvals have risen by less than housing prices when compared with previous cycles in the housing market in recent times, according to the report.
It suggested housing prices and turnover might move together over time for a number of reasons, although the relationship may not be quite as tight as that between turnover and loan approvals (and it is possible for prices to rise with only limited turnover).
It pointed to one strand of past research that found that an increase in housing prices causes an increase in turnover. This is because higher housing prices increase the net wealth of home owners.
"This allows those owners who did not previously have a large enough deposit to trade up to a more expensive dwelling, thereby increasing turnover.
"A complementary strand of research has found that the causality can also run in the other direction, from turnover to housing prices," it said.
Turnover and housing price growth have moved together over time, although the relationship appears to have weakened somewhat in recent years.
The change is most evident in Sydney and Melbourne, where growth in housing prices has been strongest of late.
The rate of turnover has remained low in those cities, both in terms of their longer-term averages and relative to growth in housing prices.
It suggests that some vendors might discern a rise in housing demand by observing a rise in turnover, thereby encouraging them to raise their reserve prices.
The report suggested it ws difficult to know why the turnover rate has remained relatively low compared with its history and compared with prices.
It note the debt-to-income ratio has been stable at high levels.
"Although interest rates are currently low, the expected repayment burden on loans is at 10-year average levels, when calculated using a longer- term interest rate to account for the expectation that variable interest rates will move up over time," the report said.
"Indeed, in New South Wales and Victoria, which have experienced the greatest disparity between housing prices and turnover relative to historical norms, the share of current income required to service an average loan over the next 10 years is close to historical highs."
