Extended recovery forecast by NAB after "very large" Q2 fall
The NAB are forecasting a "very large fall" in Australia's second quarter of 2020, but then there will be an extended period of recovery.
NAB economists Alan Oster and Gareth Spence suggested the -0.3 per cent contraction in Q1 was slightly weaker than they had anticipated, however after the inevitable large Q2 dip, they now see a stronger than previously expected pick up in the second half of 2020.
"Following the integration of the Q1 national accounts our near term forecasts for growth in 2020 are broadly unchanged," Oster and Spence advised in their most recent research.
"We still expect a large fall in activity in Q2 – a decline 8.5% q/q, before an earlier and stronger than previously expected pickup H2 2020 and continued recovery in 2021."
For the first time, NAB have forecast the GDP in 2022, expecting a 2.8 per cent rise.
They suggest the GDP won't exceed the Q4 2019 levels until mid 2022.
Housing
There's been no revision in the house price forecast from NAB. They're still expecting to see falls of between 10 and 15 per cent over the next 12 to 18 months.
"Higher unemployment, slower wage growth and falls in overseas migration will weigh on prices in capital cities while new supply continues to come online", Oster and Spence said, although added that offsetting the declines will be the impact of lower interest rates and a pullback in construction.
They believe dwelling investment will decline around 15 per cent over the next year or so before levelling out in mid-2021.
"High rates of completion are likely to rapidly erode the pipeline of new dwellings while uncertainty in the housing market will see caution in new commitments going forward.
"A more significant improvement in approvals will be needed going forward to see a return to growth in dwelling investment. However, as noted the impact of softer prices in the established market and uncertainty about the level of migration going forward may weigh on the development process going forward."
Employment
There's further good news coming from the NAB camp. They've downgraded their forecasted unemployment rate, now suggesting it will peak around 8.5 per cent.
"With labour force participation temporarily impacted by definitional changes to Jobseeker payments and the impact of Jobkeeper in supporting jobs it is likely that the unemployment rate will now peak at a much lower rate – around 81⁄2%.
"Nonetheless, the impact on the labour market has already been large with underutilisation rising to exceptionally high levels and hours worked declining sharply in April.
"The unemployment rate is expected to remain elevated for sometime, despite the rebound in growth.
"This reflects the time it will take to fully recover the level of GDP to pre-COVID levels following the large expected fall in Q2."