Not all doom and gloom for Canberra: Terry Ryder

There are few opportunities these days to write anything bullish about the Canberra property market.

All the data suggests prices are stagnating or falling and rents are down significantly, with a 5% annual decline for the median house rent and a 7% fall for apartments.

While Sydney three hours down the road is pumped up by a strong state economy, a big infrastructure spend and the confidence created by competent governance, Canberra is mired in negativity and uncertainty thanks for cuts to the public service and an oversupply of apartments.

But, as is so often the case, there are different stories to be found if you dig beneath the generalised figures about a city.

The Gungahlin precinct is one sector of the Canberra market showing some life. It will benefit in future from the new light rail system, as well as the relocation of 650 public service jobs to that part of Canberra.

The territory's Chief Minister Andrew Barr has confirmed that 400 public servants from ACT Shared Services will vacate Woden this year and head north to Gungahlin.

The move will leave a lot of empty spaces in the Callam Offices complex at Woden, but the biggest impact is likely to be the positive one for Gungahlin – particularly as another 250 public servants will pulled from other areas and relocated to Gungahlin as well. 

The move, taken in conjunction with other unhelpful events, will hurt the economy of Woden and possibly property markets in surrounding areas, which are struggling already.

The Canberra Times reported: Woden Valley Community Council chairman Martin Miller said the town centre was "probably not prepared" for the departure of so many regular workers.  "The federal public service is decreasing its presence as well – the Department of Human Services was moved to Tuggeranong years ago and the Department of Veterans Affairs is due to move as well," Miller said. "It will have an impact – it's sort of like the perfect storm."

Property markets in suburbs surrounding the Woden Town Centre have been weak performers in recent years. Suburbs like Phillip, Lyons, Hughes and Mawson have median house prices lower than they were three years ago.

They, along with others like Garran, Chifley and Pearce, all have long-term capital growth rates in the 3-4% range, which is poor by national standards.

Where Woden loses, Gungahlin gains. Generally, this precinct of Canberra looks to have better prospects than most in the national capital, helped by the Capital Metro light rail system, which will link Gungahlin to the city centre.

The light rail system is currently in the procurement stages. The ACT government has named four private business consortiums, which will be considered for the construction of the $800 million light rail line.

The targeted travel time from Gungahlin to the city via Northbourne Avenue, the Federal Highway and Flemington Road is 25 minutes. Experience shows that new transport infrastructure can be a game-changer for residential property markets.

The Gungahlin precinct is currently one of the few sections of the Canberra market showing some life. While Canberra prices generally have not grown in the past 12 months, some suburbs in the Gungahlin area have delivered solid increases in median house prices.

They include Palmerston (up 7%), Amaroo (up 5%) and Harrison (up 6%).

Unlike the Woden precinct, suburbs around Gungahlin mostly have values higher than three years ago, though not a lot higher. Amaroo, for example, has grown an average of 4% per year over the past three years.

This precinct also shows up in The Price Predictor Index published by Hotspotting. It has a couple of suburbs listed as Rising Steadily – Palmerston and Nicholls – and others classified as Consistency markets, including Ngunnawal, Franklin and Amaroo.

TERRY RYDER is the founder of hotspotting.com.au. You can email him or follow him on Twitter.