House price falls in Sydney and Melbourne "will get worse before they get better"

House price falls in Sydney and Melbourne "will get worse before they get better"
House price falls in Sydney and Melbourne "will get worse before they get better"

House price falls in Sydney and Melbourne "will get worse before they get better", Deloitte Access Economics says.

The increasingly higher cost and lower availability of credit will generate a "mini-credit crunch."

"The nation's immigration intake will be cut – perhaps severely – thereby undercutting many of the 'most likely' forecasts underpinning the growth of domestic markets," the report says.

There would also be a "fear-of-fear-itself" momentum, the report adds.

"Lending is down, it's amidst its longest dry spell since the global financial crisis, and investor loans have dropped to a six-year low," the Deloitte report, reported in The Australian Financial Review, says.
 
"That says housing price falls – now infecting Melbourne – will get worse before they get better," said Deloitte adding they still expect a pretty benign construction cycle.

"That benign nature owes much to what we don't see in the next couple of years.

"We don't see China falling over and Australian unemployment jumping. And we don't see global and local interest rates rising fast.

"That still sees the current downswing bottoming out in late 2019 but, thanks to continuing population gains, bottoming at levels that are solid compared with the depths plumbed in past cycles."

Deloitte’s latest Business Outlook report projects that state and federal budgets will be hit hard by falling house prices and commodity prices.

NSW will bear the brunt of the housing downturn because it has had the biggest rise in house prices among capital cities.

Expensive homes will struggle to sell but there will be "less damage at the lower end", which benefits from first home buyer concessions, the report says.

house prices are essentially a function of how much people can borrow,” Deloitte economists led by Chris Richardson wrote in their 155-page quarterly report released today.

“Big banks are now running scared,” it suggests.

“Their sudden surge of caution means borrowers with the same characteristics would now get a smaller loan than they would have 18 months ago.”

They predict the current house price falls in Australia will “keep on keeping on”.

 

 

Tags: 
Credit Crunch Housing Collapse

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