Melbourne prices could fall by 9 percent under Labor policies
Sydney and Melbourne's house prices could slide by another 9 per cent in the event of Labor's planned property tax changes, according to property consultants.
RiskWise Property Research and Wargent Advisory suggest the impacts would vary around the country, hitting the most vulnerable areas including Darwin, Mackay, inner-city Perth and Townsville, which could suffer falls of up to 12 per cent.
The RiskWise paper utilised Corelogic data to take local factors into account, including rates of unit development, construction, and the recent price falls.
"It would be a defacto tightening of financial conditions for households, with potential knock-on effects from that," he told The Australian Financial Review.
"While the stated intention of the policy was to cool housing markets – at the time in 2016 that was a hot political issue as in Sydney and Melbourne markets were running away – if you were to introduce it today, it would impact markets that are already struggling."
Modelling by the firms suggest the changes would be equivalent to a sudden 1.15 percentage point hike in interest rates.
Prices in NSW and Victoria for houses would drop by 9 per cent, followed by WA and the Northern Territory with 7 per cent declines, and 6 per cent in South Australia and the ACT. Tasmania's impact would be the least, falling 3 per cent. Unit prices would drop between 10 per cent and 2 per cent.
"The report concludes that while there would be some positive initial impacts on housing affordability, these would only be sustained in the largest capital cities if appropriate policies are implemented to encourage the supply of owner-occupier suitable housing in addition to investment units," the authors say.
Wargent noted that Sydney and Melbourne's markets would likely find a new equilibrium within two years of the changes.
"Rental yields will come up and one way or another, investors will come back to the market," he said.
"So while prices would decline, it probably wouldn't be catastrophic because demand for housing is high."