Sydney property buyers cautioned about negative equity with 5 percent to 10 percent price falls tipped

Sydney property buyers cautioned about negative equity with 5 percent to 10 percent price falls tipped
Sydney property buyers cautioned about negative equity with 5 percent to 10 percent price falls tipped

Sydney home values could fall up to 10 per cent over the next two years, Corelogic head of research Tim's Lawless has predicted.

"We expect values in Sydney to fall between 5 to 10 per cent over an 18 to 24 month period," Lawless told Fairfax Media given tighter credit policies will hurt Sydney more than other capitals given it was more exposed to investors.

"Be cautious because you don't want to buy and see yourself in negative equity straight away," he said.

CoreLogic expects softer national housing market conditions through 2018, driven by the Sydney slowdown and Melbourne, but to a lesser extent.

"We're likely to see lower to negative growth rates across previously strong markets, more cautious buyers, and ongoing regulator vigilance of credit standards and investor activity," Mr Lawless anticipates.

Unlike when capital city dwelling values fell by 1.6 per cent between late 2015 and early 2016, growth rates won't rebounded this time, he forecast.

He said it was not likely there would be a "similar lifeline thrown to the housing market" via either lower interest rates or loosening credit conditions.

Sydney property values fell 0.9 per cent in the month of December 2017, leading a 0.3 per cent fall nationally in dwelling values.

Sydney property values fell 2.1 per cent over the December quarter to end up just 3.1 per cent for the year at a median of $895,000.

Dwelling value changes over 2017
"The city's annual rate of growth is now tracking at just 3.1 per cent; a stark difference to the recent cyclical peak when values were rising at the annual rate of 17.1  per cent only seven months ago," Lawless noted.
 
"Despite the reversal in growth rates since August 2017, Sydney dwelling values remain 70.8% higher than their cyclical low point in February 2012."
 
"[Melbourne's] housing market has been far more resilient to negative growth compared with Sydney due to factors such as stronger population growth, lower affordability hurdles and a higher rate of jobs growth, however the growth trend has been clearly moderating since late 2016 and Melbourne's annual rate of capital gain, at 8.9 percent, has fallen below double digits for the first time in eleven months," Mr Lawless said.
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Tim Lawless Price Correction

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