Off the plan Parramatta settlement risk remains a live issue: Deloitte
Settlement risk remains a live issue for Parramatta developers and their project financiers, according to new analysis from Deloitte of the Parramatta market.
Their inaugural Parramatta Crane Survey revealed an unprecedented level of construction in Parramatta, identifying 39 developments.
Its research indicates approximately 650 apartments were purchased off the plan during the peak of the cycle in 2016 which are the pre-sales exposed to the highest settlement risk.
"Anecdotally we have not heard of any major settlement issues in the local market to date and prudent developers are likely to be proactively monitoring this risk," the survey author and Deloitte Western Sydney’s Real Estate Leader, David Hagger, noted.
The survey reveals that there are currently 2,707 apartments under construction in the Parramatta CBD, due for completion between 2018 and 2019.
With a further 4,865 apartments proposed across 12 projects, a potential ‘flood’ of the market has been predicted by some commentators, but according to Hagger, however, the survey indicates a different outcome.
“We see the market entering a cooling phase.
"There are only 1,110 apartments with DA approval in the pipeline, providing a short-term supply of approximately 2-3 years, indicating lower risk of oversupply."
He suggested developers are adjusting to changing market conditions - including limits on lending by banks, increases in stamp duty and land taxes and restrictions by Chinese regulators on outbound investments in real estate - along with the shift towards commercial development.
"The pool of proposed apartments does represent a significant potential supply.
"However, these are not yet committed," he noted.
"If property prices retract slightly, or less mortgage finance is made available, for example as banks restrict investor loans, the presale purchaser may be required to contribute further equity.
"The settlement risks could potentially result in purchasers not being able to complete and the completed stock being relisted for sale thereby adding to the existing supply pool in the Parramatta market.
"This is most likely to occur when the apartment was sold at the ‘peak of the cycle’ where the purchaser has assumed ongoing capital growth and stretched their own financial position."