Gottliebsen says some Sydney unit prices have fallen 25 percent as market has cracked
The Sydney apartment market was now suffering serious falls in certain locations, according to The Australian columnist Robert Gottliebsen.
He said Sydney's building rate for apartments in the city was set to fall by at least 50 per cent which will have a severe downward flow on to economic activity in Australia’s biggest city.
He tips the big banks will be reporting a significant rise in their problem loans — particularly if global interest rates rise on the back of US tax cuts, though not in the current reporting season.
He says the level of apartment decline is much greater than most were predicting three to six months ago.
The repercussions will quickly spread to Melbourne, although the blows may not be as severe because apartments are much cheaper.
"Brisbane is already in trouble so may be insulated from further big falls," he wrote."
"Those looking for a fall in Sydney dwelling prices will be cracking the champagne today but unfortunately the repercussions will be nasty so the celebrations may be short lived," he added.
"If you want a headline figure, apartments sold as used apartments in the big Sydney apartment estates have fallen by at least 20 per cent.
"The fall rate for individual sales can rise to 25 per cent," although no further details were given.
"However the price fall in new apartments bought either off the plan or as the developer sells a completed apartment are down in the vicinity of 12 per cent."
He blames fewer deductions from depreciation for the gap.
"Very quietly in the last budget, Treasurer Scott Morrison stopped the deduction of depreciation on used apartments from July 1, 2017.
"That means that for an investor, a used apartment is now worth substantially less than a new apartment — hence the 20 to 25 per cent price fall which is greater than the new apartment decline."
He says the 20 to 25 per cent fall in used near city apartment prices will not be duplicated across the Sydney dwelling market "but auction clearance rates will stay low or fall back and many areas will be soft."
Gottliebsen concluded his article series with the claim the "most dangerous people" are real estate agents "who will be spruiking that there is no crisis and regulators who don’t understand the power of what they have unleashed."