Upside risks for Victoria residential property market: NAB
The property market in Victoria faces upside risks, amid the recent announcement by the Andrews Government of exemptions and cuts in stamp duty for first home buyers, according to NAB's latest commentary.
Sydney and Melbourne experienced strong house price growth in late 2016 and early 2017, NAB said.
"While we expect some moderation through 2017, current momentum does suggest upside risks, particularly in Victoria where the government has recently announced a stamp duty exemption or reduction for first home buyers buying a property for under $600K and a reduction for those between $600-$750K," the report stated.
Price growth for apartments is likely to be softer, and negative in Victoria and Brisbane where the supply response will be greatest. The outlook for houses and apartment prices remains negative in Perth, and subdued in Adelaide.
The outlook for commercial property in Victoria and NSW remains solid too, according to NAB's commercial property index, while it is expected to be soft for Queensland and NT, and negative in WA, though there will be modest improvement over the next two years.
"Operating budget balances in eastern states are strong owing to strong population growth and housing market activity, while the budget position in mining states is looking a little healthier (especially in 2016-17) thanks to resurgent coal and iron ore prices (a support which is temporary in our view)," NAB said in the report.
