Record-low rental yields in Sydney, Melbourne increase default risk for investors: Moody's report
Rental yields on houses in Australia's two biggest cities of Sydney and Melbourne are down to record low levels, increasing the risks for property investors and ultimately, residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), according to new report by Moody's Investors Service.
Low rental yields have increased net costs in servicing a housing investment relative to incomes, making investment properties less affordable, says Moody's in its just-released report on Australian RMBS titled, Record Low Rental Yields Increase Risks for Residential Property Investors.
Net costs refer to investment loans costs less rental income.
Nearly half of the investor loan mortgages backing Australian RMBS were originated in Sydney and Melbourne. Housing investment loans account for 32% of the mortgages backing Australian RMBS.
"Deteriorating affordability increases the risks for Australian residential property investors and therefore for residential mortgage-backed securities backed by loans on investment properties," said JP Truijens, assistant vice-president at Moody's.
"The deteriorating affordability of servicing investment properties makes residential property investors more vulnerable to risks such as loss of income, interest rate increases, vacancies or rent reductions, and therefore increases their probability of default."
According to the report, deteriorating affordability also reduces investors' flexibility around refinancing or restructuring their mortgage loan terms, giving them less options should they experience hardship.
On average, the net annual cost of servicing an investment in a median-priced three-bedroom house in Sydney funded with an 80% loan- to-value (LTV) mortgage was $41,300 as of 31 December 2015, up 78% from three years earlier. In Melbourne, the cost was $26,674, up 63% from three years earlier.
Investors in Sydney houses require 39.6% of net household income to service their investment properties, while Melbourne house investors require 26.5%, both record highs.
For investments in median-priced two bedroom apartments in Sydney, the average net annual servicing cost was $16,270 as of end-2015, up 70% from three years earlier. In Melbourne, the cost was $15,147, up 35% from three years earlier. 4
Investors in Sydney apartments require 16.7% of net household income to service their property investments - the highest in a decade - while Melbourne apartment investors require 15.5%, a record high.
The fall in rental yields has increased the level of 'cashflow' losses suffered by residential property investors over the past three years and made them dependent on greater levels of house price appreciation to cover their losses.
A greater dependency on price appreciation makes residential property investing, and in turn, investment loans more risky.
Moody's says the performance of residential property investment loans will deteriorate through 2016 and 2017. Investment loans taken in 2014 and 2015 - at the peak of the recent house price cycle - will be behind this deterioration, it adds.
The credit rating agency also does not expect any major improvement in the cost of servicing property investment loans in the near term.
The negative impact of low rental yields and the deteriorating affordability of servicing property investments will be most evident in RMBS issued in 2016 and 2017.
Australian RMBS portfolios are typically made up of loans that are one to two years seasoned and so the bulk of the 2014 and 2015 investor loans to be securitised will be found in 2016 and 2017 vintage RMBS.