Melbourne house values tipped to increase by two percent, units expected to fall by three percent: NAB
Home values across Melbourne have substantially outperformed the regional areas of the state, according to the NAB Residential Property Survey.
While Melbourne home values rose by 11.2 percent over the past twelve months, the next best performing regions across the state were the primarily agricultural regions of Goulburn and Wimmera, where home values increased by 5.6 percent and 5.5 percent respectively.
Melbourne’s strong rate of growth started to show some tentative signs of easing over the final quarter of 2015, with home values slipping 1.9 percent lower.
At the same time auction clearance rates moderated from the high 80% range down to the mid 60 percent range indicating some rebalancing towards buyers in what has been a strong sellers’ market since mid-2012.
The supply-demand fundamentals for the Melbourne housing market have not been as supportive as those in Sydney, despite strong population growth, due to relatively stronger construction rates over the years. Nevertheless, the NAB Residential Property Survey shows that foreign demand tends to be particularly strong in Melbourne, which in conjunction with low interest rates – contributing to local borrowing capability – has seen prices grow quite strongly.
NAB has lowered its expectation for house price growth to 2% in 2016 (from 11.7% in 2015).
Price momentum is expected to slow, however, as affordability has deteriorated considerably in an environment of little to no real household wage growth. NAB also anticipates an extremely large supply response to record high prices in Melbourne, particularly in the inner city unit/apartment market, which will outpace demand. In combination with a more subdued population growth outlook and tighter credit conditions from prudential regulator changes, these factors will weigh on future price growth.
Nevertheless, improving economic conditions in the state are expected to maintain solid rates of employment that will provide underlying support to house prices, although price growth will be more modest than in recent years.
The NAB Property Survey reported a notable deterioration in market sentiment during the final quarter of 2015, although the deterioration was not as pronounced as that seen in the other major eastern markets, and Victoria is now the strongest state overall (replacing NSW).
Additionally, respondent expectations for house price growth in the next 12 months roughly halved, despite an increase in rental expectations, while foreign buyer demand for both new and existing properties eased off.
As a result, NAB has lowered its expectation for house price growth to 2 percent in 2016 (from 11.7 percent in 2015). Given the anticipated ramp up in supply of units/apartments, and uncertainties over foreign and investor demand, prices for this type of housing are expected to fall 3 percent in 2016.