NAB survey predicts slight apartment price fall in 2016
National Australia Bank's latest survey of the housing market anticipates a rise of one per cent in house prices for 2016.
Apartment prices are expected to fall by 1.2 percent.
Houses in capital cities experienced average price growth of 7.8 percent in 2015.
The survey is based on the responses of 250 real estate professionals, fund managers, property owners and investors.
NAB’s Residential Property Index fell to its lowest level since mid-2012 as the slowdown in house price growth continued. Queensland is expected to lead the country for capital growth over the next 1-2 years.
Local investors played a smaller role in both new and established property markets in Q4.
Foreign buyers were also less active, except in Queensland.
NAB has lowered its average forecast for national house prices for 2016 to 1%, with expectations softer in all cities (led by Sydney and Melbourne). The outlook for unit prices (included for the first time) also points to flat to falling apartment prices across all capitals.
The NAB Residential Property Index fell to +1 in Q4 (+10 in Q3) and now sits well below its long-term average (+13).
Market sentiment continued to weaken in most states, particularly in NSW and Queensland. Sentiment also fell in Victoria, but it has replaced NSW as the strongest overall and is currently the only state tracking above its long-term average. Sentiment fell further in SA/NT and remains very weak in WA.
Average survey expectations for national house price growth over the next 1-2 years were scaled back in most states.
Queensland, is predicted to be the best state for capital growth (1.9% & 2.7%), followed by Victoria (0.7% & 1%). House price growth in NSW in the next 1-2 years is expected to be flat, with weak growth also tipped for SA/NT (-0.6% & 0.2%) and WA (-0.5% & 0.6%).
According to NAB Group chief economist ALAN OSTER the weakening fundamentals have already seen the market starting to cool, "suggesting the best of the price gains are probably behind us”.
