Steve Keen's China property bubble postcard snaps
Steve Keen has recently noted there was no end of commentary about China's real estate bubble, with an even split between those who sense it may pop at any moment and others who argue it never will.
"The alternative ploy -- that it doesn’t exist -- doesn’t get [the] same airing that it did in the US before the subprime crash," he suggested.
"Instead, the “it’s a bubble, but it won’t burst” case is that the bubble is too important to China’s continued growth to be allowed to burst, and -- unlike the US -- China has the wherewithal to keep it going, at least for a while.
Keen said he had deliberately refrained from the China discussion, preferring to work from data he trusted.
"Until recently there was no publicly available data on China’s debt levels, which is a key metric for me; fortunately that has been remedied recently by the Bank of International Settlements.
"But I also wanted to see the phenomena first hand before I commented," he told readers on his Debtwatch website.
"Anecdotal and eyewitness evidence counts for something."
Keen reported with photos that many apartment blocks were uninhabited, and uninhabitable as the concrete shells existed, but nothing had been finished internally -- pipes existed but no taps; electrical wiring but no fittings; and so on.
So he has uploaded photos of a typical apartment in a complex of a dozen or so 30-plus storey buildings in a fourth-tier town in Sichuan. It has been in this state for a year, and the owner of this flat -- who intends on living there ultimately -- is in no hurry. On its own that apartment isn’t so remarkable. But all the flats in the building were in the same state, as were the facilities: to catch a lift, you have to bang on the doors to let the operator know you want to be picked up.
Figure 1: Finished building, empty apartments
"This is where the “uh-oh” bells began to chime: there was a clear disconnect between the speed with which this particular development had obviously gone up -- see the brickwork in Figure 2 -- and the snail’s pace at which the entire complex was now being finished," he noted.
Figure 2: A not so finished finish
"This was a set of about a dozen high-rises, and yet the workforce that was doing the finishing was miniscule -- I think I captured about 20% of it in Figure 3."
Figure 3: Industrious… not!
He suggested the paradox between the rapid sprouting of buildings and the snail’s pace of their completion in the explanation by an expat Australian as while prices were rising -- since the longer the project took to finish, the more it would be worth.
"It can be very misleading to apply Western thinking to the Chinese situation, because some things that happen in China have no parallel in the West."
Pointing to one such Chinese idiosyncrasy - the link between property development and industrial expansion that comes from enterprises established by local councils.
"And where do the councils get the money to build these factories?
"From selling land on the periphery of the council’s domain to developers.
"And where do the developers get the money to buy the land?
"From the formal and shadow banking systems.
"All is well as long as the property prices keep rising, but a downturn will mean that the councils can’t continue papering over the cracks."
He concluded that he had more faith in China’s capacity to respond to bursting property and credit bubbles than he had in the US prior to its bubble bursting.
But after the blog was posted on the Chinese Spectator website readers have quickly advised that much of what Keen alluded to was actually long the cultural norm in China.
"As an investor you would not decorate as the culture is the new owner would rip it all out," one comment said.
ormal practice in China for apartments to be sold as empty shells."
"It's true there was still a lot of unoccupied apartments but the buildings were certainly not empty - they were filling up.