With a 46 percent property price rise, will anyone believe futurist Harry Dent on his Australian tour next month

With a 46 percent property price rise, will anyone believe futurist Harry Dent on his Australian tour next month
With a 46 percent property price rise, will anyone believe futurist Harry Dent on his Australian tour next month

Harry Dent, one of the world’s most controversial economic futurists, will be touring Australia again in February.

He will be in Australia from February 24 to March 2 to discuss his latest research findings on the future of the economy.

His pitch will be how to build and protect your wealth during uncertain times which he describes as the greatest social, economic, and political upheaval since the American Revolution.

“I’m convinced that the combination of cheap money, inflated debt, declining demographics and politics will ultimately lead to a (stock) market crash worse than any we’ve ever seen.

"But that doesn’t mean you can’t still make some money in stocks right now. You see, the same forces that will ultimately lead to the next (stock) market crash are also the same forces that continue to drive this bull market “ says Harry.

He suggests Australia is a relative "safe haven."

But he will presumably offer his advice on exiting Australian property markets to a potentially understandably sceptical audience.

Last time he toured in 2014 Harry Dent's worst case scenario was for a post-China bubble burst impacting on Sydney with property prices possibly set to collapse by as much as 60 percent or so.

His controversial forecasts were labelled as "scaremongering" by commentator Chris Joye.

As he did on Harry Dent's earlier 2011 crash forecast, the founder of listed wealth manager Yellow Brick Road Mark Bouris also countered the claims. 

Bouris always maintained that Australia was well-positioned to navigate international turbulence.

In 2011 remarks on David Koch’s Sunrise program, Dent begged viewers to sell their homes before the 50 percent crash in prices arrived at their doorsteps.

Dent’s claim was that Australian dwelling values were “9.5 times family incomes”, and should, in his view, be about “half” that level.

Dwelling prices in Sydney now have an $895,000 median, up from $610,000 in early 2014, according to CoreLogic, who have noted a 2 percent fall over the past quarter.

It represents a 46 percent rise since Dent's 2014 warning. Sydney's median dwelling price was around $500,000 in 2011.

Blogger Pete Wargent noted in 2014 Dent's "track record has been wildly inaccurate."

Next month Harry Dent starts in Perth on Saturday 24th February, then Melbourne Monday 26th February, Sydney Tuesday 27thFebruary, Brisbane Wednesday 28th February and even Newcastle on Friday 2ndMarch. 

All attendees get copy of Dent’s new best seller Zero Hour.

The early bird pricing is $47.

Ofcourse Dent's most noted tip was that Japan, then on top of the economic world, would suffer a slowdown lasting more than a decade.

It is still pretty much in a coma, he notes, some two decades after the 1991 peak.

Last time he toured he told his audience: "You can't keep bubbles from bursting for ever."

Dent made headlines when he remarked that the Australian property market was like popcorn popping - different markets bursting at different times, noting the high risk of the expansionary China collapse in hurting Australian property prices.

"There is no way there will be a soft landing in China." he suggests even if the government seeks it. 

"China's blow will really hit Australia," he said.

Asked on his hit and miss success rate, Dent was forthright.

"I am likely to get 30 or 40% of forecasts wrong in the timing," he said.

His US critics point to his 2005 forecast that the Dow would hit 40,000 by the end of the decade. His local critics point to his 2011 call that property in Australia was set to crash.

Saying it often can be just one piece of information that can provide the clue, his late 1980s Japanese forecast was based on his premise that people slow in spending way ahead of retirement, from 46 years onwards.

Asked how much understanding the pysche of the population of a city or country was helpful in understanding market movement, and he agreed.

"You are right, yes markets do go up and down together, but to different degrees.

"But the bubble will be here and there, say Melbourne and Brisbane."

Harry is the founder and senior editor at Dent Research, where he seeks to identify and study demographic, technological, consumer spending and geopolitical trends to forecast economic booms and busts well ahead of the mainstream.

His latest publicity blurb put out by Max Markson seeks to address his many critics.

"Mainstream media pundits are calling me crazy, an idiot, and a quack.

"But that’s nothing new…

"After all, I’ve been making predictions that people are sceptical of for decades… but one after another keeps coming true anyway!"

{mijopolls 149}  

 

Jonathan Chancellor

Jonathan Chancellor

Jonathan Chancellor is one of our authors. Jonathan has been writing about property since the early 1980s and is editor-at-large of Property Observer.

Tags: 
Forecast Property Bubble

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