WA's Busselton and NSW's Gloucester lead early emerging uplift in national property sales activity: RP Data's Tim Lawless

A five-year hiatus for property sales over the past half decade is beginning to show signs of change.

Based on a recent analysis of sales there are now some regions showing substantial improvement in transaction volumes.

For the year to March 2013, RP Data estimate that 400,209 house and unit sales occurred nationally which is 2.3% more sales than over the same period a year ago. However, this is 8.8% fewer sales compared with the five year average.

Dwelling sales based on trend have been rising since the housing market bottomed out in May last year.

In fact, the number of house and unit sales transacted over the March quarter was the highest recorded since the three months ending November 2011.

Across the capital cities, Perth and Darwin were the only two areas where transaction numbers over the year to March 2013 were higher than their respective five-year average number of sales.

In Perth, where market conditions were previously very soft prior to 2012, dwelling sales are now tracking 15.4% higher than the five-year average; Perth house sales jumped by 25% over the past twelve months alone.

Darwin has also shown a significant increase in house sales over the past year, rising by just over 15 per cent to be almost 2 per cent higher than the five-year average number of sales.

The capital cities where transactions are the lowest relative to their five-year average sales rate are Hobart (-17.1%), Canberra (-17.0%) and Melbourne (-15.0%).

Source: RP Data

A relatively soft level of buyer demand is demonstrated by the fact that the number of house and unit sales was lower over the year to March 2013 across each of these cities compared with the previous twelve months.

At a more granular level, our analysis shows that there were 60 council regions across the country where dwelling sales over the year to March 2013 where higher than the five-year average.

Based on the council specific data, regions in Western Australian are bouncing back to an above average rate of sale, particularly council regions within the Perth metro area.

Of the sixty council regions that were recording an above average number of sales over the year to March 2013; 37 (62%) were in Western Australia, 17 (28%) were in New South Wales, 3 (5%) were in the Northern Territory, 2 were in South Australia (3%) and 1 was in Queensland.

An interesting trend is emerging across those areas where the number of sales is tracking significantly below the five year average.

There were 53 council areas across the country where the number of dwelling sales over the year to March 2013 was tracking more than 25 per cent lower than the five-year average. Nearly half (47%) of these regions were located in Victoria and almost 20 per cent were located in Tasmania. This highlights the relatively sedate housing market conditions in these states compared with their five year average.

The three Councils recording the most significant slowdown in sales over the year to March 2013 compared with their five-year average are all key mining regions:

• Shire of Roebourne which includes the suburbs surrounding Karratha recorded 144 sales over the year to March 2013; 45% lower than the five year average.

• Queensland’s Isaac Regional Council, which is home to the coal mining towns of Moranbah, Clermont, Dysart and Nebo (amongst others), recorded 252 sales over the year to March 2013; 45% lower than the five year average.

• Port Hedland – the heavyweight of the mining towns showed that transactions have slowed from a five-year average of 243 sales down to 137 over the year ending March 2013.

The slowdown in these mining regions shouldn’t come as a great surprise considering weaker commodity prices and a slowing of infrastructure projects associated with the mining sector.