Melbourne shows minor improvement in housing affordability: PRD

Melbourne shows minor improvement in housing affordability: PRD
Melbourne shows minor improvement in housing affordability: PRD

Melbourne's housing affordability and liveability improves on slightly in the 1st half of 2020 compared to the 2nd half of 2019, reveals PRD's Affordable and Liveable Property Guide Melbourne 1st Half 2020

Housing affordability in VIC declined in the 12 months to Q1 2020, with the proportion of income to meet home loan repayments increasing by 8.4 per cent. On the other hand, the level of first home buyer loan activity increased by 24.4 per cent in the same period. A substantial increase in demand is potentially due to government first home buyer incentives.

Affordable and liveable house suburbs (those with a maximum property sale price of the VIC average home loan plus a 90 per cent premium), as per the 2nd Half 2019μ report, exist. Example suburbs include Preston, Greensborough, Greenvale, Oak Park, and Forest Hill. In the 1st half of 2020, 103 suburbs fell within this price range, a slight improvement compared to the 100 suburbs previously found in the 2nd Half 2019 report. Further, these suburbs still meet the set liveability criteria.

The most affordable and liveable house suburbs include: 

  Approx. radius from the Melbourne CBD Median House Price 1 Bed Median Price  2 Bed Median Price  3+ Bed Median Price 
Greensborough 20km $803,000 $602,625 $760,000 $876,250
Altona 19.5km $885,000 $763,250 $842,500 $1,030,000
Oakleigh South 7.7km $923,000 $880,000 $890,500 $1,028,000

Affordable and liveable unit suburbs include: 

  Approx. radius from the Melbourne CBD Median House Price 1 Bed Median Price  2 Bed Median Price  3+ Bed Median Price 
Kingsville 9.3km $447,000 $285,000 $415,000 $747,500
Moonee Ponds 7km $470,000 $400,000 $524,000 $761,000
Brunswick East 6km $525,000 $386,000 $560,000 $821,500

From 2018 to 2019/20 the number of houses sold in Melbourne Metro increased by 19.1 per cent. However, during this time frame median house prices declined by -11.1 per cent to $1,091,000. Similarly, demand for units increased by 12.9 per cent and median unit price softened by -1.8 per cent to $600,000. 

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Melbourne shows minor improvement in housing affordability: PRD

Melbourne Metro sales and median price growth. Source: PRD. 

Over Q1 2020, the Melbourne Metro rental market recorded a median rental price of $410 per week for houses and $460 per week for units, representing quarterly median price growth of 2.5 per cent for houses and 4.5 per cent for units.

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Melbourne shows minor improvement in housing affordability: PRD

Melbourne rental market analysis. Source: PRD. 

There is still a healthy demand for properties in Melbourne Metro, while affordability has increased. This puts Melbourne Metro in a unique position, as first home buyers can benefit from lower prices yet sellers can be confident of market demand. Melbourne Metro is a city conducive for investment as vacancy rates were recorded at a healthy 2.8 per cent in April 2020, indicative of rental properties being occupied relatively quickly. 

The percentage premium needed to be added to the VIC average home loan in this report is 79 per cent, lower than the 90 per cent added in 2nd Half 2019 report. Further, it is lower than the 111 per cent premium that is needed to reach the Melbourne Metro median house price, whilst still being able to satisfy all other methodology criteria set. A similar pattern can be seen in the unit market, which suggests that the cost of liveability has declined in Melbourne Metro. Now is an ideal opportunity for those looking to enter the market.

The top three lowest priced suburbs in Melbourne are Dallas whose 2019/20 median price is $455,000, Meadow Heights ($480,000) and Albanvale ($514,500). Dallas has a project development value of $3 million and 2019/20 median rent of $350 with a 3.3 per cent rental yield. Meadow Heights has a project development value of $3.2 million and median rent of $370 with a rental yield of 4.2 per cent, while Albanvale has the lowest project development value of $1.8 million, and a median rent of $350 with a 3.1 per cent rental yield. 

In contrast, the top three highest priced suburbs are Toorak (whose median price is $3,912,500), East Melbourne ($3,513,500) and Canterbury ($2.8 million). Toorak has the highest project development value of $35.2 million while East Melbourne has the highest median rent and rental yield of $910 and 4.1 per cent. 

In the 1st half of 2020 a well-diversified project development expenditure worth approximately $17.8 billion in Greater Melbourne is set to commence, which will have a positive snowball effect on local economies and the real estate market in Melbourne Metro

A key mixed use project is the Fisherman's Bend urban renewal project ($1.0B). This project will construct residential, commercial and retail precincts. The area is to be transformed into 4 new CBD style mini-suburbs and an employment precinct, with housing for up to 80,000 people. A key commercial project is University of Melbourne Student Precinct ($229.0M), and a key infrastructure project is Sunbury to Cranbourne Pakenham Corridor Rail Project ($571.5M).

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Melbourne Prd

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