Sportsbet tipping March RBA interest rate cut

Sportsbet has released its latest odds on a change in the cash rate for at the RBA meeting this month.

They beleive that following the recent turmoil in the global market, in particular the recent drop in the share market, that a cut is likely. 

The online bookmaker is tipping a cut of 0.25% with bets at $1.20.

The interest rate to stay the same is $4.50 and any other change $6.

The chances of an increase is $11.

“It appeared the rate was likely to stay the same, but the odds changed drastically this morning after $44 billion was wiped off the share market,’’ said sportsbet.com.au’s Rich Hummerston.

RateCity.com.au agree adding that if the RBA does cut rates most Australian home loan customers are unlikely to get the full cut.

Research from RateCity.com.au shows after the October 2019 Reserve Bank rate cut, the big four banks only passed on an average of 0.14 per cent to their owner-occupier variable rate customers paying principal and interest.

The average mortgage holder could save $56 a month if their bank passes this rate cut on in full. However, customers that get a 0.15 per cent cut might only save $34, while a 0.10 per cent cut would result in just $23, based on a $400,000 mortgage paying principal and interest.

What the big four banks did after the 2019 RBA rate cuts

RateCity.com.au research director Sally Tindall said if the RBA does cut the cash rate, most banks will struggle to pass on the full 0.25 per cent.

“If the RBA moves, new customer rates are likely to hit another low, however existing customers shouldn’t assume they’ll get the full cut,” she said.

“Last October, the big four banks passed on an average of 0.14 per cent. I wouldn’t expect more than that this time around. In fact, in this low rate environment, some variable rate customers will be lucky to get half."

“The record-low cash rate is problematic for the banks. Many banks’ base savings rates are within 0.25 per cent of zero, making it near impossible to pass on full cuts to depositors."

“If the RBA does fire off another cut, banks will have to weigh up the competing interests of borrowers, depositors and shareholders,” she concluded.