ANZ sees bottoming of the housing market in coming months

ANZ sees bottoming of the housing market in coming months
ANZ sees bottoming of the housing market in coming months

The ANZ Bank has revised its forecast and now sees the bottoming of the housing market "in the coming months" following the policy turnaround. 

Economists Felicity Emmett and Adelaide Timbrell have forecasted prices will rise modestly through to the end of 2019.

They expect a three percent growth in 2020.

"After a period of significant weakness, house prices appear to be stabilising," their latest Australian Housing Update read.

"Sydney prices have fallen 15%, while Melbourne’s are down 11%," they advised.

ANZ sees bottoming of the housing market in coming months

"Brisbane prices have fallen only modestly, while Adelaide prices have been broadly stable.

"Perth remains weak, but Hobart has been a standout.

They cite the election result, back the back RBA cash rate cuts and APRA loosening their lending serviceability have all contributed to the quickening of the end of the downturn.

"All of these factors have helped to shift sentiment from one of pervasive negativity to cautious optimism," Emmett and Timbrell said.

They warned however against a property boom that we saw from 2012 to 2017.

ANZ sees bottoming of the housing market in coming months

"While the outlook definitely looks more positive, we do not expect a V-shaped recovery for prices," the report noted.

"Our view for some time has been that the tightening in credit has been the major driver of weakness, and while there has been some easing at the margin, changes to the use of Household Expenditure Measure (HEM) and the introduction of comprehensive credit reporting will offset some of the impact.

"Moreover, there is still a substantial amount of supply coming on stream, particularly in Sydney where the rental vacancy rate is at a 15-year high.

"This all suggests that the recovery is likely to be a fairly modest one.

 

 

 

 

 

Joel Robinson

Joel Robinson

Joel Robinson is a property journalist based in Sydney. Joel has been writing about the residential real estate market for the last five years, specializing in market trends and the economics and finance behind buying and selling real estate.

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Anz Bank Prices Bottomed

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