Sydney to lead house price recovery in 2020: Moody's Analytics

Sydney to lead house price recovery in 2020: Moody's Analytics
Sydney to lead house price recovery in 2020: Moody's Analytics

The national housing market is forecast to trough in the third quarter of 2019, according to Moody's Analytics Second-Quarter 2019 Housing Forecast Report.

A gradual recovery in values has been predicted following the end of the downturn.

The May CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index results show the national housing market continuing its correction, led by Sydney and Melbourne.

House values across the country have declined almost 11% from their peak in mid-2017.

Moody's Analytics expect Sydney's housing market to lead the way in the recovery in 2020.

Sydney to lead house price recovery in 2020: Moody's Analytics

"The correction in Sydney is forecast to have largely passed by 2020, but home value growth will be far from the lofty gains of recent years," Moody's noted.

"Housing values are forecast to rise modestly in 2020, with an average increase of 3.1% forecast for houses and 4% for apartments."

Moody's have predicted a 7.8% national housing value decline in 2019, with prices to recover in 2020, rising 2.2%. They see a 4.7% increase across the country in 2021. 

Sydney to lead house price recovery in 2020: Moody's Analytics

"Support for the improvement is coming from the RBA cutting the cash rate, alongside expected improvement in credit availability from APRA proposing to ease serviceability requirements," Moody's said.

"A gradual improvement will be the path going forward, with softer macroeconomic conditions at home, including expectations of wage growth remaining subdued working to dampen a stronger recovery."

Moody's forecast improvement in Melbourne's housing market too in 2020, with the inner east and north east leading the recovery.

The housing market around the Brisbane area is likely to see either flat or mildly positive returns in the coming years.

There will be areas with a correction in 2019 according to Moody's with a particular weakness in South Brisbane.

Perth is expected to be hit hard over 2019, with house values likely to decline nearly seven percent. Moody's believe there will be a small recovery in 2020 as the local economy improves thanks to population growth.

Adelaide’s housing market will continue its stable run, with house values forecast to rise 0.4% in 2019 after a 1.9% gain in 2018.

Moody's suggest Hobart's booming housing market bull run is likely at the end. House values are forecast to rise 2.8% in 2019, followed by modest corrections in 2020 and 2021. 

Joel Robinson

Joel Robinson

Joel Robinson is a property journalist based in Sydney. Joel has been writing about the residential real estate market for the last five years, specializing in market trends and the economics and finance behind buying and selling real estate.

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Price Correction Moody's Analytics

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