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Melbourne's Population

Peter Maltezos's picture



From The Australian

More fringe dwellers as Melbourne population reaches 4.25m

April 30, 2013

John Masanauskas


Melbourne has again dominated Australia's population growth, adding 77,242 people in 2011-12 to reach mid-2012 with a population of almost 4.25 million.


MELBOURNE's population continues to boom as lack of housing affordability pushes more young families to the city fringe.


New ABS figures show the city is growing by 1500 people a week, with outer suburbs such as South Morang, Point Cook and Tarneit recording the biggest increases in the nation.


Melbourne added 77,200 people in the year to June 2012 - the most of any capital city and an increase equal to the size of the Latrobe Valley.


Fuelled mainly by overseas migration, the city's population has reached 4.25 million, only 400,000 short of Sydney's, said the ABS report Regional Population Growth Australia 2011-12.

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Peter Maltezos's picture



From The Age

Melbourne continues to lead nation's population growth

May 1, 2013

Tim Colebatch and Jason Dowling


Melbourne has again dominated Australia's population growth, adding 77,242 people in 2011-12 to reach mid-2012 with a population of almost 4.25 million.


New estimates released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics show five of the eight municipalities recording the nation's biggest growth were in Melbourne - three in the outer northern and western suburbs, one in the south-east, and the city of Melbourne itself.


Perth outgrew Sydney to be Australia's second biggest growth centre, its population swelling by 65,434 or 3.6 per cent, more than twice the national growth rate, to almost 1.9 million.


Victoria added 88,966 people to close the financial year with 5.624 million people, just under 25 per cent of all Australians. Australia added almost 360,000 people, and the Bureau estimates its population hit 23 million last week.


It was the 11th year in a row that the bureau estimates that Melbourne led the nation's growth. In that time, the city's population has grown by more than 750,000, or almost a quarter, imposing new strains on an infrastructure designed for far fewer people.


Planning Minister Matthew Guy said the city's population was growing by 1500 a week, or equal to the combined growth of Brisbane, Adelaide, Gold Coast, Newcastle and Canberra.


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Peter Maltezos's picture

The population numbers from the year 2000.

Melbourne's population

2000 = 3,466,000

2001 = 3,471,625

2002 = 3,513,051

2003 = 3,559,585

2004 = 3,592,975

2005 = 3,634,233

2006 = 3,744,373

2007 = 3,810,000

2008 = 3,900,000

2009 = 4,000,000

2010 = 4,080,000

2011 = 4,169,103

2012 = 4,246,345


The average growth per year for the last 12 years has been by 65,000 people.


The average growth per year for the last 6 years has been by 84,000 people.


So going by these figures, I would estimate that the population of Melbourne at June this year should be ~ 4,330,000

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Peter Maltezos's picture

I can't help myself. laugh

I've stuck with an annual growth rate of 84,000, that's conservative since it has been trending upwards and the results are, that in the year 2018 the estimated population will be 4,750,000 and in the year 2021 our population will reach 5,002,000.

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Alastair Taylor's picture

It's telling that we're still leading the country in terms of raw numbers.

Repost from OZScrapers:

Posted by Tandax: http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=102836553&postcount=6321

I've just finished compiling a list of Australia's major urban centres for June 30 2012 ERP released on Tuesday by the ABS. Under the new redefined geography, Australian Statistical Geography Standard(ASGS), I have included our capital cities under Greater Capital City Statistical Area(GCCSA) and our largest regional cities under Significant Urban Area(SUA) separately.

Therefore, i have not included urban centres under (SUA) such as Central Coast which is part of Greater Sydney, Melton and Bacchus Marsh which is part of Greater Melbourne, Ellenbrook which is part of Greater Perth etc..
I have also included the ASGS code for each city as well and the minimum population is 28,000 as i wanted to include every State and Territory's second largest city as well such as Mt Gambier for SA and Alice Springs for NT.

ASGS Code GCCSA 30 June 2011 ERP 30 June 2012 ERP Change %
1GSYD Greater Sydney (NSW) 4,605,992 4,667,283 61,291 1.33
2GMEL Greater Melbourne (Vic) 4,169,103 4,246,345 77,242 1.85
3GBRI Greater Brisbane(Qld) 2,146,577 2,189,878 43,301 2.01
5GPER Greater Perth (WA) 1,832,114 1,897,548 65,434 3.57
4GADE Greater Adelaide (SA) 1,262,940 1,277,174 14,234 1.12
8ACTE Australian Capital Territory (ACT) 367,752 374,658 6,906 1.88
6GHOB Greater Hobart (Tas) 216,276 216,959 683 0.32
7GDAR Greater Darwin (NT) 129,062 131,678 2,616 2.03
3006 Gold Coast-Tweed Heads (Qld/NSW) 579,909 590,889 10,980 1.89
1023 Newcastle-Maitland (NSW) 413,962 418,958 4,996 1.21
8001 Canberra-Queanbeyan (ACT/NSW) 404,559 411,609 7,050 1.74
3014 Sunshine Coast (Qld) 279,870 285,169 5,299 1.89
1035 Wollongong (NSW) 280,705 282,099 1,394 0.50
2008 Geelong (Vic) 177,023 179,042 2,019 1.14
3016 Townsville (Qld) 167,847 171,971 4,124 2.46
3003 Cairns (Qld) 139,693 142,528 2,835 2.03
3015 Toowomba (Qld) 108,933 110,472 1,539 1.41
2003 Ballarat (Vic) 93,293 95,021 1,728 1.85
2004 Bendigo (Vic) 87,219 88,668 1,449 1.66
6004 Launceston (Tas) 86,008 86,109 101 0.12
1001 Albury-Wodonga (NSW/Vic) 84,233 84,982 749 0.89
3010 Mackay (Qld) 79,434 81,594 2,160 2.72
3013 Rockhampton (Qld) 75,866 77,704 1,838 2.42
3002 Bundaberg (Qld) 69,016 69,805 789 1.14
5003 Bunbury (WA) 67,421 69,637 2,216 3.29
1011 Coffs Harbour (NSW) 66,615 66,610 -5 0.00
1034 Wagga Wagga (NSW) 53,905 53,832 -73 -0.14
3008 Hervey Bay (Qld) 49,710 50,431 721 1.45
2013 Mildura-Wentworth (Vic) 48,466 48,783 317 0.65
2017 Shepparton-Mooroopna (Vic) 47,549 48,114 565 1.19
3005 Gladstone-Tannum Sands (Qld) 43,117 44,355 1,238 2.87
1027 Port Macquarie (NSW) 43,153 43,587 434 1.01
1031 Tamworth (NSW) 40,263 40,832 569 1.41
2019 Traralgon-Morwell (Vic) 40,415 40,602 187 0.46
1025 Orange (NSW) 37,849 38,516 667 1.76
5006 Geraldton (WA) 37,114 38,030 916 2.47
1006 Bowral-Mittagong (NSW) 36,183 36,402 219 0.61
1012 Dubbo (NSW) 35,519 35,898 379 1.07
1024 Nowra-Bomaderry (NSW) 34,605 34,798 193 0.56
1005 Bathurst (NSW) 33,737 34,124 387 1.15
2022 Warrnambool (Vic) 32,947 33,204 257 0.78
5007 Kalgoorlie-Boulder (WA) 31,880 32,787 907 2.85
5004 Busselton (WA) 31,164 32,471 1,307 4.19
5001 Albany (WA) 31,538 31,978 440 1.40
2021 Warragul-Drouin (Vic) 30,323 31,280 957 3.16
6002 Devonport(Tas) 30,236 30,330 94 0.31
1018 Lismore (NSW) 29,360 29,443 83 0.28
7001 Alice Springs (NT) 28,449 28,517 68 0.24
4002 Mt Gambier(SA) 28,313 28,471 158 0.56
6001 Burnie-Wynyard (Tas) 28,114 28,096 -18 -0.06

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Peter Maltezos's picture

Have just compared Melbourne to Sydney.


Sydney's population in 2012 was 4,670,000 and in the last three years has been growing on average of 45,000 people per year.


At an annual growth rate of 45,000 per year, I estimate that in the year 2021 when Melbourne reaches 5,002,000, Sydney's population should be 5,075,000.


In the year 2023 if current population trends continue, Melbourne should have a population of 5,170,000 and Sydney a population of 5,165,000.


Melbourne should be Australia's largest city in the year 2023!


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Gleen Forman's picture

Melbourne is a creative, exciting, ever-changing city with extraordinary surprises to be discovered in every basement, rooftop and laneway. You just have to be curious enough to venture off the beaten path. The possibilities are endless, so forget what you think you know. Take a chance, roll the dice and see where it leads you.
is the best place weekend getaways Melbourne

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Peter Maltezos's picture




From The Age

Melbourne bursting at the seams as population booms

Tim Colebatch

August 31, 2013


Melbourne's Population


Melbourne's population is swelling by 2 per cent a year, adding more than 900,000 people since this century began - and putting it on track to be a city of 8 million people by 2050.


Recent bureau figures imply that Melbourne today is home to 4.35 million people - and 27 per cent bigger than the city it was at the start of 2000.


If growth continues at that rate, Melbourne's population would pass 5 million by 2025, overtake Sydney by 2037, and reach 8 million by 2049.

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Peter Maltezos's picture


From The Age

State grows by 100,000 people a year

September 27, 2013

Tim Colebatch


Victoria's population growth has surged to more than 100,000 a year for the first time since 2009, as net overseas migration swelled to a four-year high.


The Bureau of Statistics estimates that the state's population grew by 102,000 or 1.82 per cent in the year to March. It was the biggest growth of any state, and in the March quarter the biggest increase from net migration.


Victoria was the only state in which population growth continued to accelerate in the March quarter. Australia's population grew by 397,000 or 1.76 per cent, to pass 23 million in March.

Melbourne's population is on track to rise from 4.25 million in mid-2012 to 4.5 million by 2015 and 5 million by 2020. By the end of next year, it will have grown 30 per cent in just 15 years.  

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Alastair Taylor's picture

Victoria's population is surging much faster than the Napthine government has predicted and is at growth levels former premier John Brumby described as too fast.
Victoria's population grew by 2 per cent or 110,500 people to the year ending September 2013, new ABS data shows.
Overseas migration made up the bulk of the new residents, with 62,300, followed by births 41,300 and interstate arrivals 6900, for a population of 5,768,000.
The state's population growth was higher than the national figure of 1.8 per cent and above the budget forecasts of 1.7 per cent growth in 2012-13 and 2013-14 financial years. The December budget update confirmed Victoria's actual population growth last financial year had exceeded forecast and was 1.8 per cent.

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victorias-population-soars-faster-than...

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Peter Maltezos's picture


From Crikey

Why has Melbourne grown faster than Sydney?

A quote from the Crikey article:

More generally, it seems that Melbourne’s underlying geography is now starting to be an advantage in competition with Sydney. It’s less expensive and more easily developed urban fringe reduces land costs for housing, logistics and other uses. Melbourne airport’s location does not necessitate a curfew, unlike Sydney’s. The European quality of the built form of Melbourne’s central areas, such as its laneways and trams, has also captured the zeitgeist of Generation Y and helped make it Australia’s preferred destination for aspirational young professionals. These are all significant features that will keep Melbourne very competitive with Sydney.

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Peter Maltezos's picture

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/ab[email protected]/Products/3218.0~2012-13~Main+Features~Victoria?OpenDocument#PARALINK4

From ABS

At June 2013, there were an estimated 4.35 million people resident in Greater Melbourne, an increase of 95,500 in the year from 2012. This growth was larger than any other Greater Capital City in Australia.

A year ago I estimated it would hit 4.33 million, not that far off.


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Peter Maltezos's picture


Australian cities boom as Melbourne closes in on Sydney

March 31, 2015 - 5:54PM

Clay Lucas

Melbourne's outer west is booming like never before - with the population increasing by a city the size of Hobart in the last decade alone.

And the latest population figures for the nation, released on Tuesday, show that a suburb in the city's outer north - South Morang - is now the fastest growing in the country. 

In all, Melbourne grew by a thumping 1800 people a week, the new Australian Bureau of Statistics figures show.

Melbourne had the largest population growth of all capital cities in Australia, increasing by 95,700 people. That growth has seen the city's population grow to 4.4 million.

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Peter Maltezos's picture


ABS population estimate for Greater Melbourne at June 2014 was 4,440,300.

Melbourne had the largest growth of all Greater Capital Cities which was up by 95,700 people.

That's two years in a row with growth over 95,000!surprise

If we add another 95,000 until June 2015, my estimate would be 4,535,300.

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Peter Maltezos's picture


Australians flock to Melbourne as Victoria becomes Australia's fastest growing state

June 26, 2015 - 5:35AM Peter Martin

Melbourne has become Australia's biggest-growing city and is set to overtake Sydney as the country's biggest city in 2056, according to the latest Bureau of Statistics projections.

And Victoria has overtaken Western Australia to become Australia's fastest-growing state.

New figures from the bureau show Victoria gained an extra 101,500 residents in the year to December, and Melbourne an extra 95,600. At 1.8 per cent, Victoria's growth rate surpassed Western Australia's 1.6 per cent and the 1.4 per cent recorded in NSW and Queensland, which was the Australian average. South Australia grew 0.9 per cent, Tasmania 0.3 per cent, the Northern Territory 0.4 per cent and the Australian Capital Territory 1.1 per cent.

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Peter Maltezos's picture


Victorian population statistics: Melbourne grows as the regions shrink

August 18, 2015 - 8:45PM Peter Martin

Vast swathes of Victoria are losing population as Melbourne and outer suburbs such as South Morang and Craigieburn make big gains.

The latest Bureau of Statistics population figures show South Morang gained 27,289 new residents in the five years to 2014, Point Cook 19,244, Craigieburn 15356, Tarneit 15145, and inner Melbourne bounded by Flinders, La Trobe and Spring Streets 12127.

The Docklands gained 2758.

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Peter Maltezos's picture


ABS population statistics: Victoria becomes Australia's fastest growing state

September 25, 2015 - 10:06AM Peter Martin

An "extraordinary surge" in population has pushed Victoria to the top of the national ladder after it gained an extra 97,500 citizens in the year to March, a growth rate of 1.7 per cent.

The next fastest-growing states, NSW and Western Australia, had growth rates of only 1.4 per cent, which was also the national average and the slowest rate for a decade.

Demographer Bob Birrell from the Australian Population Research Institute said conditions in Sydney were driving the exodus to Melbourne.

"If you want a freestanding house in Sydney for less than $600,000 you have to move out 55 kilometres," he said. "In Melbourne you can still get one for $300,000.

"I am actually a little surprised that more Sydneysiders aren't moving to Melbourne."

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Peter Maltezos's picture


The latest:

ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION - Greater Capital City Statistical Areas (GCCSAs)


GCCSA                     June 2015      Change in no.         % 

Greater Sydney          4,921,000             83,300              1.7

Greater Melbourne   4,529,500             91,600              2.1

Greater Brisbane       2,308,700             35,200              1.6

Greater Adelaide       1,316,800             12,100              0.9   

Greater Perth             2,039,200             31,100             1.6


Melbourne does it again!

Perhaps all this extra humanity can live in the empty apartments we're supposed to have, wait a minute aren't they crammed full of people by others who are sub-letting..........LOL

Yes, we are told that this dichotomy is happening and that we have an apartment oversupply in the middle of the greatest demand for housing we have ever had.

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Peter Maltezos's picture


Melbourne's Population

Victoria population set for 10 million by 2051 amid high immigration

July 14, 2016 John Masanauskas, Samantha Landy

POPULATION growth in inner-Melbourne is booming as new figures show Victoria is set for a population of 10 million people by 2051. 

An extra two million dwellings will be needed by mid-century to house the state’s population, says a state government report obtained exclusively by the Herald Sun.

High immigration has forced planning authorities to revise population estimates upwards, with Melbourne expected to have six million people by 2031 and eight million by 2051.

The number of Victorians aged 65-plus is likely to almost triple from 2011 to 2051 as the population, now aged 45 to 65, ages with increasing life expectancies.

The City of Melbourne has been growing at a massive 6 per cent a year and will have 230,000 residents by 2031, up from 100,200 in 2011. Victorian Living Treasure Peter Janson lays claim to being the CBD’s first permanent resident in modern times when he lived in hotels such as the Windsor, and then converted a store near the Rialto into a home in the 1980s.

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Peter Maltezos's picture


State of excitement as Victoria's population passes the six million mark

SEPTEMBER 22 2016 - 6:06PM Broede Carmody

Melbourne's Population

Melbourne's population is on the up and up.  Photo: Jessica Shapiro

Victoria's population has swollen to six million people, meaning Melbourne is well on its way to overtaking Sydney to become Australia's biggest city. 

The "education state" grew by 1.9 per cent from March 2015 to 2016, fuelled by a surge in overseas and interstate migration.

While overseas migrants are the biggest contributors to Australia's growth, demographers say Victoria's population surge has been helped by a spike in the number of people leaving northern states to find a job further south. 

More than 14,000 people decided to ditch their old state and flock to Victoria over the past 12 months, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Glenn Capuano, demographer for consulting company .id, said 10 years ago young families and workers were flocking to Queensland in search of jobs and a warmer climate, but these days it's the opposite.

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Peter Maltezos's picture


Melbourne's population boom not just an outer suburban phenomenon

APRIL 15 2017 Clay Lucas

Melbourne's Population

Melbourne's outer suburbs are booming, but it's the city centre that is growing fastest of all.

Population figures released by the Bureau of Statistics last month showed Melbourne was growing faster than ever. The city had four of the nation's five fastest-growing regions: South Morang, Cranbourne East, Craigieburn and Point Cook.

But SGS Economics and Planning, a prominent Melbourne firm working regularly for the Victorian government on major infrastructure projects, came up with a different analysis after delving into the figures.

"I wanted to compare apples with apples," said Terry Rawnsley, an economist and a partner at SGS.

The South Morang area takes in a total of 60 square kilometres, making it one of Melbourne's largest suburbs. Most of the other growing suburbs cited by the Bureau of Statistics were also among the city's larger areas.

To provide an alternative method of comparing growth across Melbourne, SGS combined suburbs to produce areas of roughly 60 square kilometres each.

It found that the 60-square-kilometre area with the largest population growth in Melbourne was, by far, the combined regions of Melbourne City Council and Port Phillip Council.

Together they added 9300 people to Melbourne's population over the period.

Much of this growth happened along the Southbank and St Kilda Road corridor. "More and more buildings are going up and they're just getting taller and taller," said one Southbank resident and investor Tony Penna, who has been in the suburb since 2006.

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Peter Maltezos's picture


The latest:



GCCSA                     June 2015      Change in no.         % 

Greater Sydney          5,005,358             82,797             1.7

Greater Melbourne   4,641,636            107,770             2.4

Greater Brisbane       2,349,699              41,135             1.8

Greater Adelaide       1,326,354                9,371              0.7   

Greater Perth             2,066,564              27,428             1.3


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Peter Maltezos's picture


4 million, 5 million, 8 million: How big is too big for liveable Melbourne?

JULY 1 2017 - 8:17AM Royce Millar / Ben Schneiders

Look at the size of us! Melbourne, a city on steroids. Burgeoning population, booming economy, bulging outline. Every day more than 300 people added, a Ballarat-sized city each year. They come by car, boat, plane or train and some of them even by birth.

Up from a little more than 3 million just 20 years ago, we're heading to 5. The government tips 8 million by 2050 but new census figures suggest something much higher. We're one of the fastest growing metropolises in the rich world, forecast to overtake Sydney as Australia's biggest.

The unprecedented growth is a boon for business, property and development in particular. Government relishes the revenue that flows from settling new arrivals. With an eye to the next state election, Treasurer Tim Pallas declares his state – Melbourne is Victoria economically – the "powerhouse" of the nation.

Really? Or is the city more a footballer on peptides, risking liver and kidneys for short-term bulk?

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Peter Maltezos's picture


Is Melbourne already bigger than Sydney?

SEPTEMBER 24 2017 - 12:05AM  Matt Wade

Sydney has a bigger population than Melbourne, right? Well, maybe. A lot depends on where you draw Sydney's northern boundary. At the moment the official definition of Greater Sydney stretches all the way to Lake Macquarie, about 120 kilometres north of the CBD. That means the city's population is bolstered by the inclusion of the heavily populated NSW Central Coast. That region rates as Australia's ninth largest "significant urban area" in its own right, according to the Bureau of Statistics. It comfortably ranks above Wollongong, Hobart, Townsville and Darwin.

So how would Australia's two biggest cities compare if Sydney did not include the Central Coast? The bureau's latest estimates put the population of Greater Sydney at just over 5 million in June 2016. Greater Melbourne's head count stood at 4.73 million.

But if you remove the Central Coast's 335,000 residents from Sydney's tally it is a different story. That drags the harbour city's population back to 4.7 million – about 25,000 fewer than Greater Melbourne.

On that definition, Melbourne became Australia's biggest city in September 2015. And Greater Melbourne's population could be even bigger if the boundaries were tweaked a little.

The adjacent Geelong region, for example, is not included in Melbourne's population count. And yet Geelong is a little closer to Melbourne's CBD than the central coast hub of Gosford is to downtown Sydney.

So if Greater Sydney did not include the Central Coast and Greater Melbourne did include Geelong, the Victorian capital would be Australia's biggest city by a significant margin.

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Peter Maltezos's picture


Melbourne's hyper-growth continues, as nation's east coast booms

24 April 2018 — 12:38pm Clay Lucas & Craig Butt

Melbourne is on track to pass 5 million residents this year, rocketing up by more than 125,000 extra people for the second year in a row.

In the biggest sustained surge the city has seen, figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics released on Tuesday showed Melbourne had the nation's largest and fastest population growth.

The growth was largely fuelled by overseas migration, with 80,000 immigrants – or 64 per cent of the increase – coming to Melbourne.

The population boom will be a flashpoint in November's state election, with both sides of politics making promises to tackle the city's growing pains – with roads, rail, schools and health services all under stress.

The suburb of Cranbourne East in the city's south-east recorded the nation's largest growth.

Melbourne's population increased by 125,400 people – or 2.7 per cent – in the year to June 2017, taking its total numbers to a touch under 4.9 million, the Bureau of Statistics found.

It amounts to an average of 350 new people arriving in Melbourne every day, a huge infrastructure challenge to local, state and federal governments.

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Peter Maltezos's picture

Victoria's 5 largest growing suburbs

Suburb                  Pop. 2016   Pop. 2017   Net change past year   % change 

Cranbourne East      26826          34164                   7338                    27.4%

Melbourne                41473          46104                   4631                    11.2%

Tarneit                      36532          39802                   3270                     9.0%

Truganina                 24977           27952                  2975                    11.9%

Mernda                    17268           19708                   2440                    14.1%

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

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