RBA's Glenn Stevens has his Chauncey Gardner moment - but it's all about the weather, not the garden
It appears that Chauncey Gardner – from the 1979 film Being There – may have taken a job as RBA governor's Glenn Stevens' speechwriter.
No gardening references in his speech On the Use of Forecasts to the Australian Business Economists annual dinner, but it was all about the weather - strong south-easterly winds bringing in moisture from the Tasman Sea; probability assessed as 30% of thunderstorms; rain and areas of low cloud; very strong winds and windshear near the ground, not to mention heavy rain or hail; and waiting for the storm to pass.
It transpires that the Reserve Bank governor does a bit of aviation in his spare time, and hence he’s a serious user of weather forecasts, he told the crowd of economic forecasters.
“Despite the criticism aimed at weather forecasters, the forecasts I have seen in use for aviation are generally pretty good. And the saying that economic forecasters are there to make weather forecasters look good has something going for it. Of course one big difference in economics is that some decisions based on forecasts may alter the outcomes – as in the case of economic policy decisions, or spending decisions by businesses and households – whereas our response to a weather forecast will not actually alter the weather. That factor makes economic forecasting more difficult than weather forecasting. Still, some aspects of the process of weather forecasting are valuable in the economic sphere.”
Stevens ended his insightfully disarming speech: “to those of you here who do not have to make forecasts, I hope you realise how fortunate you are! To those who do, I offer my sympathy – and best wishes for clear vision over the year ahead.”
