Population growth to help NSW and Victoria property outperform: Dexus
A concentration of growth in the NSW and Victorian economies and in service industries will continue to support occupier demand and outperformance in the Sydney and Melbourne property markets in FY17, according to Dexus Property Group's latest quarterly report.
Key assumptions affecting the near-term outlook include:
NSW and Victoria will solidly outperform other states based on population growth and infrastructure spending. Queensland is forecast to improve, while WA will continue to lag.
Official cash rate to remain unchanged over the next 6 months with a bias to move lower in 2017.
Residential construction activity is expected to slow and could be a key risk to growth (FY18- FY19) if it slows more sharply than forecast.
Employment growth is positive, but the rate of growth is slowing with a continued shift from full time to part time jobs.
Service sector activity (such as education, health, IT, tourism and business) will remain a growth driver for the economy. Growth will be higher for small to medium businesses than large businesses.
The property markets of Sydney and Melbourne are forecast to show positive occupier demand over the next 12 months with mixed demand elsewhere.
Bond yields are expected to stablise at/near current levels and rise at a slower rate than in the US over the medium term, staying low by historical standards.
Property yields are expected to remain at low levels for a considerable time unless there is an external shock or disruption to capital flows.