Impacts of coronavirus on consumption based spending and business payment inflows: NAB

During these extraordinary times, NAB has taken the decision to publish aggregated customer data categorised by industry segment with the view to helping provide clarity around which segments of the economy have been most affected by the broader macroeconomic trends at play.

NAB takes data privacy very seriously. All customer transaction data has been aggregated and no individual’s data is specifically identified or analysed as part of this process. The data used in this report will not be sold or made publicly available, but insights from the data will be shared with the Australian people.

NAB’s latest Data Insights highlight a slowdown in consumption spending in recent weeks, with overall growth easing to 5.8 per cent y/y for the week ended July 18. Spending slowed in all states and territories (except SA/NT). It is now weakest in VIC (-0.7 per cent) with this result heavily influenced by lockdown in metropolitan Melbourne. NSW is also weakening faster than most. Relative to last year, overall spending growth slowed (or fell further) in all industries, but overall growth continues to be supported mainly by spending on Construction and Retail Trade.

Source: NAB Group Economics.

Payment inflows across all industries were flat (0.1 per cent) in the 4-weeks to July 18 (4-week average terms). Inflows are still falling heaviest for corporates. By industry, they were down most in Mining, Transport and Hospitality, and were strongest in Agriculture, Manufacturing, Retail Trade and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

NAB’s latest Data Insights point to a slowdown in consumption spending in recent weeks, with overall growth easing to 5.8 per cent y/y in the week ending July 18 (9.8 per cent in the previous week), but still roughly at levels seen in late-February.

 

Consumption spending eased in all states except SA/NT (8.9 per cent). It fell sharply in VIC, which is now the only state showing a negative result (-0.7 per cent). This spending hit was driven by sharp falls in lockdown areas (-3.6 per cent), with non-lockdown areas still growing by more than 8 per cent. Spending growth halved in NSW (6.1 per cent) compared to the previous week, and was strongest in the NT (19.6 per cent) and WA (12.5 per cent).

 

Relative to last year, overall spending growth eased (or fell faster) in all industries. But overall growth continues to be underpinned mostly by spending on Construction (albeit slowing to 19.6 per cent from 39.9 per cent in the previous week) and Retail Trade (which also eased to 18.3 per cent from 25.1 per cent in the previous week). Spending on Hospitality (the biggest sector of the economy) fell 14.6 per cent (down 10.1 per cent last week). Spending on Administration & Support Services is still very weak (-70.9 per cent), with sizeable falls also persisting in Transport, Postal & Warehousing (-43.0 per cent) and Education & Training (-22.6 per cent). 

 

Source: NAB Group Economics.

 

Payment inflows (in year-on-year 4-week moving average terms) were basically flat (0.1 per cent) for the 4 weeks ending July 18 compared to the same time last year, but improved from the previous week (-2.9 per cent). By business size, inflows grew in both large (5.0 per cent) and emerging (2.7 per cent) firms. Inflows into corporates however fell for the fourth straight week (-6.4 per cent), with smaller falls of around 21⁄2 per cent in both medium and small firms.

 

By industry, payment inflows into Accommodation continue falling steeply (-16.5 per cent), although this was the slowest rate of decline seen since late-March. Inflows into Mining firms however turned down sharply (-26.9 per cent), with inflows into Transport, Postal & Warehousing also still falling heavily (-16.6 per cent). Inflows into Education fell 4.6 per cent after falling 22.0 per cent in the previous week. Payment inflows were strongest into Agriculture (12.2 per cent), Manufacturing (11.4 per cent), Retail Trade (11.2 per cent) and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services (10.0 per cent). 

Source: NAB Group Economics.