Adelaide the most under-rated property market in Australia: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder
EXPERT OBSERVER
Remarkable consistency of steady performance is the hallmark of the Adelaide property market, which I regard as the nation’s most under-rated. It has more suburbs with rising demand than any other capital city and the current number is the second highest for Adelaide since Hotspotting started its quarterly surveys of sales activity four years ago.
In the past seven quarterly surveys, the number of growth suburbs has been 48, 45, 58, 61, 71, 60 and 62, showing that the market remains elevated compared to the levels of 18 months ago and continues to show great consistency.
SA, dominated by Adelaide, has impressed with its steady performance in the past five years. Each of the past 21 quarters has recorded between 8,000 and 9,500 dwelling sales. Adelaide has recorded between 45 and 71 growth suburbs in 16 of the past 17 quarterly surveys.
It continues to rank well ahead of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, as well as the strongly recovering Perth market, in terms of the number of growth suburbs – and ahead of most state regional jurisdictions (where most of the strong growth markets are found at present).
And while sources such as CoreLogic and SQM Research report annual growth of only 1-2% in Adelaide house prices, these generalised figures disguise individual areas which have done better. Our suburb-by-suburb analysis shows that 74% of Adelaide markets have median prices higher than a year ago - and roughly half of those have grown by more than 5%.
Of the 199 Adelaide suburban markets analysed, 70 have grown 5% or more and 78 have increased by less than 5%. There are 23 suburbs where the annual growth in median prices has topped 10% - including North Adelaide (up 23%), Mansfield Park (20%), St Georges (18%), Henley Beach South (15%), Glenelg units (27%) and Norwood units (17%).
It’s noteworthy that many of the upper-end suburbs have recorded more than 5% growth in their median prices in past 12 months. Suburbs with median prices above $700,000 and good annual price growth include Beulah Park, Clarence Park, Craigburn Farm, Glen Osmond, Glenelg East, Glenunga, Goodwood, Henley Beach, Henley Beach South, Kensington Park, North Adelaide, Prospect, Seacliff, Somerton Park, St Georges, Stirling, Unley and Walkerville.
The growth is not all confined to the top end: there are suburbs with growth above 10% spread across all price ranges, including Broadview (up 15% to $560,000), Daw Park (up 14% to $640,000), Mansfield Park (up 20% to $395,000) and Tea Tree Gully (up 12% to $445,000). This reinforces the reality that out-performing areas can be found even when the overall market appears to be moderate.
The high number of suburban markets with rising sales activity suggests price growth will continue.
Adelaide has a broad geographical spread of LGAs with good numbers of growth markets. There are nine municipalities which have four or more suburbs with rising sales trajectories leading to price growth. This means there is growth momentum across the metropolitan area.
Port Adelaide Enfield continues to be a leading precinct, with eight growth suburbs including Dernancourt, Enfield, Greenacres, Lightsview, North Haven, Northfield and Semaphore. Five suburbs have recorded annual median price growth above 5%.
Onkaparinga, which always features prominently, also has eight suburbs with growth momentum – including Aldinga Beach (quarterly sales 54, 62, 71), Flagstaff Hill (36, 42, 53, 56), Reynella (16, 26, 36, 31, 42) and Sellicks Beach (15, 15, 23, 22, 35).
The upmarket Burnside LGA is a new contender: it has six upwardly-mobile suburbs, including Glenunga, Burnside, Kensington Gardens, St Georges and Toorak Gardens. Five suburbs have recorded annual price growth above 5%, including Glenunga (up 11% to $1,055,000) and St Georges (up 18% to $1,150,000).
The Marion LGA, a middle-market area in the south-west of Adelaide which has been a market leader for the past 18 months, has faded slightly but still has five growth suburbs in terms of sales activity and five where median prices have increased more than 5%.
Six municipalities have four or five rising markets each: the Charles Sturt, Campbelltown, Holdfast Bay, Playford and SALISBURY LGAs, as well as Marion.
The affordable Tea Tree Gully LGA features as a highly-consistent market and one where eight suburbs have recorded median price growth of 5% or more – including the suburb of Tea Tree Gully (up 12% to $445,000) and Fairview Park (up 9% to $410,000).
The solid performance of the Playford and SALISBURY LGAs (eight growth suburbs between them) means the northern suburbs provide a range of very affordable markets with rising momentum. The suburb of SALISBURY Hills ($285,000) in the SALISBURY LGA has lifted sales from 30 to 32 to 41 to 56 in the past four quarters, while Andrews Farm ($275,000) in the Playford municipality has recorded quarterly sales totalling 33, 46, 50 and 52 after the past 12 months.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
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