McGrath share price supported by property management and mortgage commissions: Bell Potter

McGrath share price supported by property management and mortgage commissions: Bell Potter
McGrath share price supported by property management and mortgage commissions: Bell Potter

The McGrath share price is going to be 32 cents in a year's time, reflecting no change from its current lows, according to Bell Potter, the stockbroker who helped float the estate agency at $2.10 in late 2015.

The forecast came after McGrath updated the ASX on the deteriorating property market conditions.

McGrath provided a trading update that highlighted a number of factors which are negatively impacting the operating performance of the company.

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McGrath share price supported by property management and mortgage commissions: Bell Potter

McGrath did not provide any guidance for FY19 but did say it expects a much better result in 2HFY19 and “at least a breakeven position on an EBITDA basis” for the full year.

Bell Potter accordingly downgraded its FY19 EBITDA forecast from $5.1 million – which was consistent with underlying FY18 EBITDA – to a modest loss of $0.5 million which is below the company’s general guidance of at least a breakeven result.

It also downgraded its FY20 and FY21 EBITDA forecasts by 58% and 44% but continue to forecast positive EBITDA in both these periods and some improvement in market conditions.

"Our downgraded EBITDA forecasts mean we now expect a net loss in FY20 and a modest net profit in FY21," the stockbroker advised.

McGrath share price supported by property management and mortgage commissions: Bell Potter

"The net result is a 16% decrease in our PT to $0.32 which is close to the current share price and so we maintain the HOLD recommendation.

"We note our PT is now modestly lower than the $0.33 valuation we apply to the annuity businesses but we do not see this valuation as the key driver of the share price as we do not expect these businesses to be sold."

The broker advised shareholders it "no longer forecasts a resumption of dividends in FY20 given we now forecast a net loss in the period".

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McGrath share price supported by property management and mortgage commissions: Bell Potter

Its determination of the price target for McGrath was base on its core DCF (discounted cash flow) and the valuation of the annuity businesses.

"McGrath has two annuity businesses – property management and mortgage broking – which generate recurring revenue and so a relatively reliable or dependable valuation can be applied to each.

"We value both businesses at b/w $55 - 60m which equates to b/w $0.33 - 0.36 per share and so provides some valuation support for the share price."

Jonathan Chancellor

Jonathan Chancellor

Jonathan Chancellor is one of our authors. Jonathan has been writing about property since the early 1980s and is editor-at-large of Property Observer.

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