Cardinia Shire's population growth driving property sales: Terry Ryder

Cardinia Shire's population growth driving property sales: Terry Ryder
Cardinia Shire's population growth driving property sales: Terry Ryder

One of the emerging themes in real estate in the past couple of years is that when capital cities boom, regional towns just outside the metropolitan area often follow suit.

Sydney’s up-cycle has rippled out to locations in the Central Coast and in the Southern Highlands, and near-city Victorian towns have caught the wave from Melbourne’s strong market.

One of the standout performers has been Cardinia Shire, where strong population growth is driving property sales in the main towns. 

By 2036 the population of the shire, which sits just outside the Melbourne metropolitan area in the south-east, is expected to have almost doubled from 94,000 now to around 180,000. 

Cardinia Shire was named in the State Government’s growth strategy document as the potential site of Melbourne’s third airport. 

Cardinia has the advantage of being near the Port of Hastings and therefore has the potential to become a key player in a freight transport network. 

With a developer now proposing to build a $7 billion private airport, Cardinia’s prospects have lifted significantly, although this is a project with long-term horizons.

Offering a plentiful supply of houses priced under $450,000 and within commuting distance of major Melbourne employment nodes, Cardinia Shire is becoming increasingly worthy of consideration by property investors.

Cardinia Shire is becoming a popular lifestyle location as housing density in the inner- and middle-ring suburbs of Melbourne deepens. 

Several towns within the shire could be considered dormitory suburbs, as 54% of residents travel outside the municipality to work, according to Census data. 

The region is well serviced by transport. The Princes Highway cuts through the middle of the shire while the South Gippsland Highway runs along the southern edge, linking the area to the Melbourne CBD. 

There is the Pakenham line of the Melbourne Metro train network which has stations at Beaconsfield, Officer, Cardinia Road and Pakenham, while V/Line trains also service a connection between Gippsland and Pakenham.

Being home to 47,000 in 2016, Pakenham is the most populous district within the Shire and up until 2014, it was the administrative centre of the Shire. Cardinia’s Council offices have now been relocated to Officer.

Pakenham remains the main retail centre for the shire, the most prominent shopping centre being Pakenham Central Marketplace.

Cardinia Shire has come to Hotspotting’s attention because of the rising sales activity in towns like Pakenham, Officer, Beaconsfield and Emerald.

Pakenham consistently sells over 250 homes per quarter, but two of the past three quarters have topped 300 sales. 

This strong sales activity has earned Pakenham a place in our National Top 50 suburbs nationwide for growth.

In the last 12 months, CoreLogic has recorded a 19% increase in Pakenham’s median house price which is now $470,000.

Population growth has been a driving force in Pakenham, prompting the development of several new residential estates. 

This is reflected in the increase of the number of building approvals from 1,241 in FY2014 to 1,938 in FY2017.

The Cardinia Road precinct in Officer is another site of projected population growth and extensive residential construction. 

The median house price in Officer is $485,000 based on 224 sales in the past 12 months, following a 34% increase (although the size of the rise could be misleading).

Towns which offer the best affordability, with median house prices between $380,000 and $450,000, include Bunyip, Lang Lang and Koo Wee Rup.

The Cardinia Shire can expect a substantial influx of new residents over the next 20 years. 

The biggest changes are predicted to occur in the Pakenham area, the Cardinia Road precinct and the Officer precinct.  

Terry Ryder is the founder of

Terry Ryder

Terry Ryder

Terry Ryder is the founder of

Terry Ryder Regional

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