CBD proximity not essential growth factor as outer-rings soar
Price growth in the outer ring suburbs of Melbourne has been extraordinary in the past 12 months.
Most suburbs in local government areas (LGAs) like Wyndham, Hume, Whittlesea and Casey have recorded double-digit growth in the median house prices. Many have grown more than 20% and some have topped 30%.
The big price rises have come on the back on massive demand for homes from buyers of all sorts chasing affordability, against a background a strong Victorian economy and continuing high population growth.
The strength of the growth in the outer-ring areas of Melbourne provides further evidence that proximity to the CBD is not an essential factor for buyers seeking capital growth.
Proximity to employment is a core factor but the reality is that most people work in suburban jobs nodes, not in the CBD (that’s true in all capital cities, including Melbourne).
In the City of Casey in the far south-east of the Melbourne metropolitan area, eight suburbs have each recorded over 330 house sales in the past 12 months.
They include Narre Warren, Clyde North and Cranbourne North, which have each recorded more than 450 house sales, and Berwick where over 700 houses have been sold in the past year.
Every suburb in the Casey LGA has had double-digit growth in median house prices. Cranbourne, Hallam, Cranbourne East, Hampton Park and Narre Warren have all had median price growth above 20%.
It’s been a similar scenario in the Whittlesea LGA in the far north of the Melbourne metro area. Four suburbs have had over 400 house sales each in the past year and five more have each sold between 225 and 300 houses.
All the suburbs of Whittlesea have had double-digit growth in their median house prices, including four (Epping, Lalor, Mernda and South Morang) which have grown 20-25% and one (Thomastown) which has risen 33%.
The pattern is similar in the neighbouring Hume LGA. Broadmeadows, Greenvale, Meadow Heights and Roxburgh Park have each sold between 200 and 350 houses, while Craigieburn had made over 500 house sales.
All the Hume suburbs have had double-digit growth in their median house prices, including six suburbs which have grown more than 20%. They include Jacana (up 26%), Gladstone Park (up 24%) and Broadmeadows (up 29%).
Most of the suburbs of the Melton LGA in the far north-west have each sold over 200 houses in the past year, led by Melton West (335) and Caroline Springs (343).
Every suburb has recorded at least 12% growth in median house prices, while Melton and Melton South are both up 27%.
But, in terms of turnover, the star market is Wyndham City in the south-west heading towards Geelong.
The sales turnover is prolific in Hoppers Crossing (682 house sales), Wyndham Vale (436), Tarneit (684), Werribee (791) and in particular Point Cook (953).
All of the five suburbs mentioned have grown their median house prices at least 13% in the past year, led by Hoppers Crossing (up 21%) and Werribee (up 22%).
The important lesson is that downmarket, outer-ring areas do record strong price growth and that affordability is a prime driver of activity and prices. That’s especially so in places where the infrastructure is good.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
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