Queensland's internal population flows stabilising the CBD apartment ship: Pete Wargent

I've written a lot here about Queensland's record apartment construction boom, which is now rebalancing. See here and here, for example. 

The number of attached dwellings constructed through this cycle will exceed even the post-recession boom of the early 1990s. 

The number of detached house starts is now rising steadily, but for attached dwellings new commencements are falling fast, especially for the higher-density projects.

And the official numbers are six to nine months old.  

A quick drive around central Brisbane reveals that many projects have been stalled or mothballed, and staged releases pushed out. 

Developers simply can't shift many of them, with unusually 'flexible' terms being offered to prospective buyers in some cases. 

Below annual dwelling starts for the state are mapped against the estimated change in the resident population. 

I deliberately haven't messed around with the axes on the chart as some are inclined to do.

After all, this cycle has been characterised by record volumes of high-rise apartments, which might house fewer persons per unit on average previously (while there is arguably the issue of Chinese investors and vacant apartments to account for). 

The numbers show total dwelling starts falling fast in 2017, as they needed to. 

Queensland's net overseas immigration and therefore population growth pulled back hard after the peak of resources construction, leading to a dwelling stock overhang, in a similar vein to Western Australia. 

Fortunately for local developers, Queensland has become the state with the greatest internal population flows in the country, which is helping to stabilise the ship.

They'll be looking to offload their final apartments quick-sharp and put the shutters up for the remainder of this cycle. 

As ever, lots of variations are apparent when drilling down to the regional and suburb level. 

PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and blogger.