The heightened decline in suburbs under the $400,000 median: Cameron Kusher
At the end of 2016, 7.6 percent of suburbs nationally had a median house value under $200,000 and 5.9 percent of suburbs had a median unit value below $200,000.
To put these figures into some perspective, 11.4 percent of suburbs had a median house value of at least $1 million and 3.0 percent of suburbs had a median unit value of at least $1 million.
Mr Kusher found that over the five years to the end of 2016, a substantial decline occurred in the proportion of suburbs with a median value below $400,000.
As a comparison, at the end of 2011, 53.5 percent of suburbs had a median house value of less than $400,000 and 69.8 percent of suburbs had a median unit value of less than $400,000. By the end of 2016, the proportion of suburbs with a median value of less than $400,000 fell to 41.0 percent for houses, and 55.3 percent for units.
Looking back at the individual capital cities over the past five years highlights a significant shift in the proportion of suburbs with a median value under $400,000, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne.
Today’s analysis revealed that five years ago, with the exception of Darwin and Canberra, every capital city had at least 20 percent of its suburbs with a median house value of less than $400,000.
At the end of last year, it was virtually impossible to find houses for less than $400,000 in Sydney, Darwin and Canberra while less than 7% of suburbs had a median house value below $400,000 in Melbourne.
We noted that across each city there has been a substantial decline in affordable housing over the past year despite the fact that outside of Sydney and Melbourne there has been only moderate value growth over the period.
Even units recorded a fairly substantial decline in the proportion of suburbs with a median value of less than $400,000 over the past five years.
For those earning a relatively low income in Sydney and looking to buy a house or unit, they are competing for a rapidly declining pool of housing stock across the city.
The pool is also declining across the remaining capitals, albeit not at the same pace of decline as in Sydney.
Key Findings:
• At the end of 2016, looking at both houses and units, 20.5 percent of Sydney suburbs had a median value of less than $600,000 compared to 38.5 percent of suburbs having a median value of at least $1 million. To further highlight deteriorating housing affordability in Sydney, 34.6 percent of suburbs had a median unit value of less than $600,000 at the end of 2016. In each other capital city, a higher proportion of suburbs had a median house value of less than $600,000 than the proportion of suburbs with a median unit value of less than $600,000.
• In 2011, the proportion of total suburbs with a median house value below $400,000 across each capital city was: 21.2 percent in Sydney, 28.9 percent in Melbourne, 40.9 percent in Brisbane, 40.5 percent in Adelaide, 31.1 percent in Perth, 69.2 percent in Hobart, 2.1 percent in Darwin and 1.1 percent in Canberra.
• Units offered a more affordable option highlighted by the proportions of suburbs values below $400,000 at: 38.8 percent in Sydney, 48.2 percent in Melbourne, 81.7 percent in Brisbane, 94.3 percent in Adelaide, 59.8 percent in Perth, 92.7 percent in Hobart, 53.3 percent in Darwin and 44.6 percent in Canberra.
• The proportion of suburbs with a median house value of less than $400,000 at the end of 2016 was recorded at: 0.1 percent in Sydney, 6.3 percent in Melbourne, 29.2 percent in Brisbane, 28.0 percent in Adelaide, 18.9 percent in Perth, 52.1 percent in Hobart and 0.0 percent in Darwin and Canberra. For units the proportions were recorded at: 6.5 percent in Sydney, 31.8 percent in Melbourne, 62.7 percent in Brisbane, 85.1 percent in Adelaide, 46.4 percent in Perth, 88.4 percent in Hobart, 57.6 percent in Darwin and 45.8 percent in Canberra.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him here.