Housing affordability still a key concern for Australia: CBRE
Housing affordability has become a key concern in Australia, according to CBRE’s latest report.
Housing price growth over the past few years in markets such as Sydney and Melbourne have been well in excess of rent growth and household income growth.
Historically low interest rates have facilitated this strong price growth and consideration should be lent to the potential impact on pricing when interest rates rise again.
"Our modelling indicates that Sydney households would experience an 8ppt increase in mortgage repayments (as a proportion of median household income) if interest rates increase by 1ppt," the report advised.
The impact is less in other markets (figure 21) but considerable nonetheless.
"We expect that when interest rates do begin to rise (unlikely before 2018) that price growth in Sydney and Melbourne is likely to slow the most, partly closing the price gap that has expanded over other markets in recent years," the report stated.
Sydney building approvals are expected to decline in 2017 as more supply enters the market.
However, the housing construction boom should last longer than in other states because dwelling approvals are holding up better and the market isn’t oversupplied.
The outlook for Melbourne and Brisbane inner city markets is similar: soft rental markets due to new supply will result in sharper reductions in building approvals than nationally and prices for apartments will soften in response to high supply.
Perth remains constrained by softening population growth and weak statewide economic performance.
Oversupply will remain a feature of the Perth rental market during 2017 but price declines are expected to be less than 2016 levels.
Adelaide building approvals are likely to decline as a soft employment outlook limits the potential for population growth.
Canberra building approvals are expected to ease in 2017 as tougher lending conditions impact investor demand.