Brisbane's office market showing signs of recovery: Cushman & Wakefield
Brisbane’s office market has crossed the low point in the cycle and is starting to show signs of a recovery, according to the latest office market report by Cushman & Wakefield.
Queensland’s economic growth suggests tenant demand should continue to gather momentum, in spite of the fact that H2 2016 net absorption is estimated to be lower than the surprise H1 2016 result, the commercial real estate firm adds in its Q4 office market outlook.
Brisbane saw 190,000 sqm of new supply in 2016. Most recently 1 William Street (75,000 sqm) was completed in Q4, which is fully occupied by the Queensland government and largely represents the end of the current supply cycle with only the refurbished 310 Ann Street (18,400 sqm) scheduled for 2017.
There will be stock withdrawals of nearly 130,000 sim in 2017 leading to net-negative supply of 112,000 sqm over the year, says the report. In line with this, prime gross effective office rents are trending sideways. Following a 5.2 percent decline in 2015, rent decline moderated to 0.8 percent in 2016.
Cushman & Wakefield says its base case scenario of a U-shaped recovery in Brisbane looks set to continue, a view further bolstered by the results in its “Office leasing trends and outlook” survey in which respondents expected vacancy to decline to 14 percent over the next year.
Improvements to Queensland’s State Final Demand and strengthening commodity pricing provides upside potential for tenant demand. Queensland’s State Final Demand rose a modest 0.1 percent in the quarter ended September. “However, given the high level of vacancy, the market will continue to favour tenants over the near-term,” the outlook concludes.