Investment in commercial property surges 32 percent in Q3: Cushman & Wakefield
Commercial property investment volumes in Australia surged 32 percent to $9 billion in Q3 on a quarterly basis – the strongest third quarter of the year since 2014, says a new Cushman and Wakefield’s update on investment in the sector.
Unlike in Q2, where the market was driven by a comparatively small number of larger deals, activity in Q3 was skewed back towards the lower end of the spectrum with average deal size at $47 million. However, this is not to say there were not significant transactions – nearly one-third of the quarterly volume came from deals above $200 million, says according to the Investment MarketBeat Q3.
Much of the liquidity was provided by A-REITs divesting of non-core stock (Figure 1).
Most of the big-ticket deals were transacted in Sydney and Melbourne. (Table 1)
Available stock in the office sector remains comparatively tight, resulting in below average investment volumes. In light of weaker investment in the office sector, other sectors performed more strongly to drive the quarterly result. At $1.8 billion, the industrial sector recorded the strongest quarterly result since Q3 2014. The retail sector was also buoyant with over 70 transactions recorded for the quarter, resulting in total investment volume of $2.2 billion.
Foreign investment also rebounded strongly in Q3 2016 to $4.9 billion, from the $2 billion invested in Q2. Asia Pacific investors dominated the quarter, with China-based entities and Singapore-based entities accounting for $1.7 billion and $1.3 billion respectively. International investors, those with a global platform, rounded out third place with a further $1.2 billion, following the $1.5 billion invested last quarter.
The investment market has been somewhat erratic over 2016 so far with regard to the number of deals and average deal size. Notwithstanding this, investment volume in 2016 is currently matching that at this stage in 2015. For volume to remain flat by the year’s end, though, $9.5 billion of investment is required in Q4.
Office yields contracted further in Q3, especially in Sydney which together with strong rental growth drove capital value growth of 33 percent over the past 12 months. Although yields are approaching historical lows across many markets, compared to fixed interest investments and many offshore commercial property markets, Australian commercial real estate remains attractive. In the current lower-for- longer environment, this allows potential for further modest compression.