SEQ overtaking Melbourne in price growth prospects: Terry Ryder

Melbourne is the No.1 capital city, still buoyant in contrast to Sydney’s steady decline. But South-East Queensland – the vast urban area including the Gold Coast, Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast – now has more growth suburbs than the Melbourne metropolitan area.

In simple terms, Melbourne has been strong for at least two years while many South-East Queensland markets are still quite early in their cycle. There are strong growth precincts right throughout this region, headed by Gold Coast City, but with Logan City, Moreton Bay Region and the Sunshine Coast Region all providing lots of rising markets.

According to our quarterly surveys of sales activity for The Price Predictor Index, the Gold Coast remains the clear national leader among the Local Government Areas of Australia. It has the most growth suburbs, by a wide margin, as has been the case in recent surveys. Among the standouts are some of the canal suburbs south of Surfers Paradise.

They include Burleigh Waters, where sales rates have risen from 85-90 per quarter 18 months ago to 140 more recently. Mermaid Waters has also shown a pattern of rising sales levels, while nearby Miami has increased sales from 56 to 69 to 81 to 87 to 95 in consecutive quarters.

The Moreton Bay Region in Brisbane’s north stands out as a market that has come from a long way back in the field to challenge Logan City as the No.1 market in Brisbane. If the pattern continues, Moreton Bay Region will be Brisbane’s market leader in the next quarterly survey.

Three suburbs in this LGA make our national top 30 list of growth suburbs – Morayfield, Deception Bay and Warner. Sales rates have doubled over the past two years in Morayfield, while sales in Warner over the past five quarters have been 57, 60, 75, 87 and 92. 

Logan City, which borders the Gold Coast to the south and Brisbane City to the north, led the revival of Brisbane markets in 2015 and continues to be the standout precinct (just ahead of Moreton Bay). It has more growth suburbs than any other Brisbane precinct, headed by Beenleigh, the LGA’s administration centre, where house sales have increased steadily over the past 18 months. Another standout suburb is affordable Shailer Park, where sales have increased steadily from 65 per quarter 18 months ago to 105 in the survey. 

Meanwhile, there are growing signs that Melbourne’s up-cycle is close to its peak. As in many growth markets, Melbourne’s cycle started in the near-CBD areas and over a couple of years has gradually rippled further out. During 2015 the leading precincts were mostly middle-market areas like the outstanding Whitehorse LGA (where some suburbs recorded 20%-plus growth in their median prices).

Now the outer-ring areas are rising to prominence, always a sign that the cycle has almost run its course. Among the Melbourne market leaders are the Casey LGA in the far south-east, the Brimbank LGA in the west and the Whittlesea LGA in the far north.

Growth is the Whittlesea LGA is headed by the suburb of Mill Park (median house price $480,000), where sales rates have been 87, 108, 109 and 140 in the past four quarters. Other growth suburbs in this precinct include Mernda, Wollert and Thomastown.

The LGA of Brimbank is an under-rated area in Melbourne’s west, centred on the suburb of Sunshine. This area has been stigmatised as downmarket in the past but its perception and market performance is improving on the back of good infrastructure and urban renewal developments. Deer Park is a standout suburb, with sales totaling 68, 97, 95, 100, 110 and 115 in the past six consecutive quarters.

That growth pattern is now being reflected in a steady rise in median prices.

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au. You can email him or follow him on Twitter.