Are we about to see our property investors short the market? Robert Simeon
Once again we see a fast backtrack by many commentators who predicted a strong easing of real estate prices for the March quarter of 2016.
Then again there are those (like myself) who predicted an about-turn in property prices which is precisely what has happened. For the last four years the December quarter has been the worst performing quarter which can be simply put down to human fatigue.
For those who read the property markets wrong they then seamlessly move to Plan B – the debt debate and yes, Australia’s housing market does have a $1.45 trillion debt blister.
This debate is then marinated with housing affordability, which I must admit has everyone confused given the apparent lack of care or interest. Sydney and Melbourne, and Brisbane to a lesser extent, are flooding the markets with new developments, although in the majority of instances these properties are sold direct to non – resident Australians, so how does that work?
Take Sydney for instance – in the 1980’s the average house price ratio to median yearly household income was 3.0. In 2005 this ratio increased in Sydney to 8.5 and in 2015 it climbed to a staggering 12.2. I can’t see this breaking the back of house prices but I do see plenty of trouble ahead for the Sydney apartment market which has approximately another 22,000 new apartments in the investment pipeline over the next 24 months.
This is the market that requires closer examination and should not be confused with the family house market as the two are distinctly opposite.
We also need to look under the bonnet of the Australian economy to see what is driving it more particularly GDP. Sydney is way ahead of the pack with a 23.3 percent share overall Sydney has outperformed the rest of Australia for the last three years. Next in GDP is Melbourne with 17.7 percent, then Brisbane at 9.6 percent, Perth at 9.5 percent and then Adelaide at 4.6 percent.
If you look at the Green Square development (currently under construction) located between Alexandria and Moore Park in South Sydney – this development will deliver 27,276 apartments so they would be hoping that 60 percent are going to owner occupiers, as if! It is more like 80 per cent to property investors this will send rents in that area spiraling down as there will be a market flood when they all hit the market seeking tenants.
Investor beware! Australia is currently locked in to its biggest apartment development boom ever seen and the big problem is that these developments are congested into the same post codes and are not spread, so a cold can quickly turn to pneumonia.
What scares me the most is that we can trace this boom starting back in December 2008 when the ratio of foreign buyers was moved from 50 percent of new developments to 100 per cent. This ignited property developers and respective state and territory governments to move over night without any analysis to high density.
Again without analysis these developments have been contained into developing areas – so what if the foreign buyers decide not to proceed as the vast majority of these developments are yet to be completed?
It will be property investor mayhem because it’s one big Ponzi scheme totally reliant on the good faith of foreign investors completing on their transactions. Melbourne has another 123,622 apartments in the pipeline and Sydney has 88,013 and there are plenty more on the way awaiting approval. In the case of New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland the state governments are only focused on millions and millions of dollars in stamp duty and land tax.
Sorry to tell you but nobody has a contingency plan should these new developments start to collapse, because if they do the prices will drop 30 per cent minimum overnight.
So whilst housing affordability is directly a responsibility of government I, like many, are not feeling comfortable at how they plan to make it more affordable. With Sydney and Melbourne building the lion’s share of apartments we should also note they are contributing 41 per cent of the Australia’s GDP.
This is precisely the conversation our elected politicians need to be having and this should have started years ago. We may be building an apartment revolution but just like the share market we could be looking at the biggest ‘shorting’ in the property market we have ever seen before too.
Very, very happy to be wrong on this.
MOSMAN – 2088
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 72
• Number of houses on the market last week – 54
• Number of houses on the market this week – 48
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 61
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 42
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 45
CREMORNE – 2090
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 6
• Number of houses on the market last week – 4
• Number of houses on the market this week – 6
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 17
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 28
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 28
NEUTRAL BAY – 2089
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 15
• Number of houses on the market last week – 7
•Number of houses on the market this week – 6
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 36
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 26
*Number of apartments on the market this week – 25
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985.
He has also been writing real estate blog Virtual Realty News since 2000.