Inevitable Sydney would run out of puff: Terry Ryder
It was inevitable that Sydney would run out of puff eventually and the most likely time for it to happen was in the third year of price growth – which means some time this year. It’s rare for major markets to sustain a boom for any longer than that.
I’ve just finished the research for the latest edition of The Price Predictor Index, examining market activity in suburbs and towns across the nation, and it indicates Sydney has begun a gradual fade.
The number of suburbs with rising sales activity has dropped and the number of what we call “consistency markets” has risen. This is because suburbs that previously had growing sales volumes have now tapered off at those higher levels or have dropped a little below the peak.
It provides quite a stark contrast with Melbourne. It’s clear from the research that Melbourne is out-pointing Sydney on sales activity, if not on price growth.
Melbourne now has almost double the number of growth suburbs as Sydney. Melbourne has 134 suburbs classified as rising markets, compared to 72 in Sydney.
As further evidence of the Sydney fade, regional New South Wales now has (slightly) more growth suburbs than does Sydney.
Melbourne continues to produce upwardly-mobile markets across the metro area. According to our ranking system, it has seven Rising Fast, 127 Rising Steadily and 100 Consistency markets, which is an improvement on the results three months ago and represents a general strengthening of the Melbourne residential sector.
Two things stand out in the latest analysis: “middle Melbourne” is still strong and new areas are emerging with strong markets, especially locations on the outskirts of the metropolitan area.
The Whitehorse LGA, east of the Melbourne CBD, remains the No.1 precinct. It has more suburbs with forward momentum than any other precinct in the city. Whitehorse includes Nunawading (median price $700,000), Burwood East ($800,000) and Blackburn South ($800,000).
Other middle market area of prominence include Monash City, where Mt Waverley ($960,000), the Oakleigh suburbs (around $750,000) and Chadstone ($805,000) are doing well, and the Kingston LGA, which includes Cheltenham ($695,000) and Parkdale ($750,000).
But increasingly, strong markets are popping up on the periphery of Greater Melbourne. The charge is being led by the Frankston and Mornington Peninsula LGAs in the far south: Frankston has eight ranked suburbs and the Mornington Peninsula has 13. Rosebud sales have risen from 117 to 134 to 175 per quarter, while Rye has improved from 91 to 120 to 155.
The Casey LGA in the south-east has two Rising Fast suburbs, five that are Rising Steadily and seven that are ranked as Consistency markets.
Whittlesea in the north remains a serious contender: it has two Rising Fast suburbs and four Rising Steadily markets. Epping sales have been 77, 113, 107 and 130 in the past four quarters. Also in the affordable north, the Hume LGA is a new challenger, with six Rising Steadily markets, including Roxburgh Park ($400,000) and Westmeadows ($415,000).
The Brimbank LGA in the western suburbs is a regular standout. It has now has nine Rising Steadily suburbs and six Consistency markets, a marked improvement on three months ago. Wyndham City in the far south-west is another of the big improvers. And Yarra Ranges in the far eastern suburbs, which has not featured previously, now has eight ranked suburbs.
Upmarket areas such as the Boroondara LGA (including Balwyn and Kew and the Glen Eira LGA ) (including Caulfield North and BENTLEIGH East) feature, each with six or seven growth markets, but most of the standouts are middle market and bottom end suburbs.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of hotspotting.com.au. You can email him or follow him on Twitter.