Australian commercial property values are yet to reach historic highs: GPT's Carmel Hourigan
The past 24 months have seen a significant increase in commercial property capital values with limited rental growth, according to the GPT Chief Investment Officer, Carmel Hourigan.
"Our expectation is that capital values will increase again in 2015 driven by rental growth and a reduction in returns required by investors," Hourigan said at a presentation for CEDA's Property Outlook 2015.
She noted Australian commercial property values are yet to reach historic highs despite historic low bond yields and other ‘global’ cities recording all time low property yields.
Her speech noted two key structural factors influencing capital values:
- "The globalisation and liberalisation of capital flows leading to new investors in the Australian property market; and
- "An ageing population driving a hunt for income generating assets. The fact is a government bond at 2.4% is simply not enough to fund an Australian’s retirement. 10 years ago that number was 5.6%, now it is half. As a result, investors are accepting moderately higher risk to invest in real estate and infrastructure.
"On the cyclical side, the global and domestic economic recovery has also led to a strengthening in income from commercial property, however the recovery has been slower and growth is expected to remain moderate.
"Australian corporate profit growth remains heavily reliant upon cost reduction rather than revenue growth and this will lead to continued pressure on rents."
Since the GFC in 2008, Hourigan noted capital values have slowly recovered and are on their way to getting back to the previous peak.
Transaction volumes or the amount of money actually being spent buying and selling commercial property is also tracking well above the height of the last cycle which reflects offshore buyer and merger and acquisition activity.
The majority of activity of that activity has been in the office sector in particular in gateway cities on the eastern seaboard.