Population growth is all about striking the right balance: Craig James

Population growth is all about striking the right balance: Craig James
Craig JamesDecember 7, 2020

GUEST OBSERVATION

The old adage is that it is time in the market, not market timing. And that adage certainly applies to the wealth of Australians. Not only has household wealth levels lifted to fresh record highs but generational-low interest rates are also reducing borrowing costs across an array of sectors.

The global financial crisis caused the biggest ever drop in wealth for Australian households, however wealth levels have been repaired over the past couple of years and have hit new highs. In short, we aren’t as badly off as it may seem. Average financial wealth per person stands at just over $333,000.

Australia’s financial wealth lifted by almost $190 billion in the December quarter. Interestingly the improvement in wealth levels and low interest rate environment over the past year has supported a lift in consumer activity. Interestingly almost 23% of total household assets are being held in cash and deposits - well above the decade average of 20%.

As the Reserve Bank has highlighted on many an occasion, the improvement in household balance sheets certainly bodes well for future spending. And given that a low interest rate environment is likely to be part of the economic landscape over the coming year, it is likely to see households continue to invest in other asset classes and spend a little bit more freely.

The strength in share markets has certainly been the key driver of the turnaround in wealth and more importantly the pickup in wealth is expected to continue. We expect an ongoing improvement in wealth over coming quarters. The cheap cost of debt will support corporate Australia and over the coming year as the economy lifts, we expect Aussie businesses (outside of mining) to feel more confident to kick-start investment plans.

Australian superannuation funds are holding well over one and a half times the ‘normal’ proportion of money in defensive assets like cash and bank deposits. That is not to say that super funds have not been investing in equity markets, rather that equity investments have been less than the cash inflows recorded by fund managers. The risk for fund managers is being caught with too much money on the sidelines while equity markets track higher. With term deposit rates offering lower returns than growth assets, it is likely pension funds will allocate a larger proportion of inflows to listed property funds and equity markets

Population growth is healthy although in recent quarter it has eased – largely due to a slowdown in migration. Importantly population growth is still amongst the fastest across the OECD nations and as such more people coming to Australia means greater demand for houses, cars and retail items. Clearly faster population growth is good news for builders and retailers.

Some people aren’t convinced that faster population growth is a good thing. It is all about striking the right balance. If we need more workers and we can’t get them locally, it makes sense that we bring them in from abroad. It is vital that supply and demand for workers is brought into balance.

An ongoing lift in migration is also positive from a longer-run point of view in that it flattens out the ageing profile. We will need more in the way of younger people over time to support the growing ranks of pensioners.

What do the figures show?

Total household wealth (net worth) stood at a record $7,884 billion at the end of December 2014, up $189.7 billion or 2.5% over the quarter. In per capita terms, wealth rose to a record $333,061 in the December quarter, up $6,769 over the quarter.

In real terms, the value of land and dwellings rose by $85.6 billion in the December quarter while financial assets rose by $41.8 billion. Net saving plus real wealth rose by $160.5 billion in the quarter.
Households held a record $903.1 billion in cash and deposits at the end of December. Cash and deposit holdings represented 22.8% of financial assets, above the decade average of 20%.

Pension fund (superannuation fund) assets rose by $52.7 billion to $1,721.3 billion in the December quarter. Cash and deposits stood at 15.0% of financial assets, still well above the long-term average of 9.3%.

Foreign holdings of Australian sharesrose by $10 billion in the December quarter to a record $731.6 billion. Foreigners held 46.3% of Australian listed shares at the end of December, down from 47.0% in the September quarter although above the long-term average of 42.7%.

Australian non-financial private companies held $431.7 billion in cash and deposits at the end of December. Cash and deposits were 40.5% of all financial assets in the quarter, down from 41.1% of financial assets in the September quarter and below the 14-year high of 42.5% recorded in the September quarter 2013. The long-term average is 37.4%.

Population Statistics:

Australia’s population expanded by 354,600 people over the year to September 2014 to 23,581,000 people. Overall, Australia’s population growth rate eased from 1.58% to 1.53% – a three year low.

Australia’s population grew by 90,300 people over the September quarter. Population growth hit a 5-year low of 1.39% in the year to March 2011 before lifting to 1.78% in December 2012 and has since eased to now hold at a three year low.

A total of 203,900 people migrated to Australia over year to September, well off the low of a gain of 172,100 in the year to December 2010. The record high was 315,700 in-bound migrants over the year to December 2008.

There were 303,100 babies born in the past year, just shy of the record 312,200 births in the year to September 2013. And deaths (152,200) were at a record high.

Over the past year population growth was the strongest in Western Australia (2.12%) followed by Victoria (1.77%), Queensland (1.49%), NSW (1.43%), the ACT (1.15%), Northern Territory (1.14%), South Australia (0.85%), and Tasmania (0.31%).

Population growth is above decade averages in just NSW (17% above decade averages) and Victoria (4% above decade averages). Population growth eased in the Tasmania over the September quarter, but growth had lifted for the prior eight straight quarters after hitting 12 year lows in September 2012. Population growth in Queensland was at a 15-year low and in the ACT was at an eight-year low.

What is the importance of the economic data?

The Australian Bureau of Statistics releases the Financial Accounts publication each quarter. The data covers assets, liabilities and financial flows for the key sectors of the economy. Figures on financial wealth help reveal the true state of household finances.

Demographic Statisticsare issued by the Bureau of Statistics each quarter. The figures include estimates of births, deaths, in-bound and out-bound migration movements and estimates of population change by State.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and Federal Treasury release the Modellers’ Database each quarter. The ABS notes: “the Modellers' Database consists of over 500 quarterly times series constructed from the NIF and TRYM econometric models. They are useful to economists, econometricians, financial analysts and students.

What are the implications for interest rates and investors?

Household and company balance sheets remain strong, and it is likely that more money will be put to work in the low interest rate environment over the coming year.

The Reserve Bank would be hoping that the lift in wealth levels continue to entice consumers and businesses to spend a little bit more freely – driving activity and helping to absorb the weakness in mining investment. Interest rates are still likely to fall over the next couple of months. We expect the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates in May.

The slowdown in population growth is having a detrimental effect on some states. Queensland and the ACT are amongst the weaker states when it comes to activity and growth levels and the result also shows up in the latest population statistics. Population growth in Queensland is holding at a 15-year low, and partly explains the contraction in economic growth over the past two quarters.

Craig James is the chief economist at CommSec.

Craig James

Craig James is the Chief Economist at CommSec, interpreting ‘big picture’ economic and financial trends.

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