This weekend is a big pointer to the strength of the Melbourne market
You don’t need to have an economics PhD or be a 30 year veteran of the Melbourne market to understand that there is some heat in the market right now leading into our main spring markets.
In the north at Northcote, by the bay from Port Melbourne to Brighton, in Bentleigh, in the east from Toorak to Kew, through to outer east areas of Mont Albert North – wherever we went in our million dollar plus auction bidding for clients or reporting for James Marketnews, we found large numbers of bidders on market-perceived “good” homes.
Bidder depth (the key measurement to market pricing) shows an underlying market strength, perhaps on even larger numbers than before our winter break. And when you combine this statistic with our James million dollar plus clearance rate of 70%, you can clearly see that the market is again being super selective, super picky and only really going for the ones it considers “market” value or a really good home. If the clearance rate number pushes into the high 70s and stays there, and auction bidder depth stays above two over the next few weeks, then the market direction is clear.
Right now we are in what we call the early spring market which lasts until the Grand Final (c’mon Pies hang in there). Then we have the very powerful mid-spring market between Grand Final and the Melbourne Cup and we finish with the late spring or pre-Christmas market from early November to mid December. Next week is the last of the new stock early spring weeks (with only four weeks to run an auction campaign before Grand Final). Then you have a window of one large new stock week after the Grand Final that will give four weeks to run an auction campaign before the Melbourne Cup. And finally there are four (hopefully) solid stock weeks in November. That adds up to six key new stock weeks between this weekend and till when the market shuts down till February 2015.
Our balancing comments are, one, we are seeing a different bidder depth on deals over $4 million right now and, two, this early spring market can be a bit like our early February market. It can, and often does, perform slightly better than the higher volume middle and late spring markets as demand spreads across a wider number of homes. Having said that, make no mistake – this weekend’s figures are very, very clear on their messages.
We may sound like a broken record, but those two clear messages, those two crystal clear market pointers are
- Beware the wounded underbidder
For each of the homes we reported on or purchased, there are still around four bidders out there in the market looking for a home varying in price between $1.2 million to $3.3 million. To put it another way, for every dozen homes there is still a pool of 40 frustrated buyers who will go more aggressively, with more money, when they are competing against you on a home of similar characteristics next week or next month.
It’s hard to explain to our potential clients that your “enemy” right now is, not always the agent, it is in August more often than not, the other buyer. But as we can see with our buying success rate around 90% this year, it is not always about the most money, often it is about the best strategy that wins the market priced home. - Not every home flew out the door
Whilst the majority of our activity has been off market and pre-auction, expressions of interest or even “stales” in the last month (we have had not just a record August, but our busiest month ever), you still need to be smart on price and strategy.
- Price: Don’t overpay the market based on your fear. Stock levels are good, if you know where to look.
- Strategy: You can’t assume you are the only bidder. Clearly on the sample you may not be. However you also don’t want to assume you are competing against many, because in a smokes and mirrors situation (e.g. away from public bidding), on an overpriced home, you may be Robinson Crusoe when it comes to putting in an offer.
This weekend is a pointer. Yes it’s only one week and it is early days yet, but nonetheless it’s a very solid pointer to spring and it is sending a very clear message that if conditions are perceived to remain as they are perceived now, then the market is going in one clear direction only.