Foreign investors chasing high yields set to drive office capital values higher
Capital values for office property in Australia’s major cities will rise as tenant demand increases and investors becoming more willing to accept lower yields, experts have forecast.
Competition for commercial properties in Australia is already strong with institutions such as sovereign wealth funds from Europe and Asia, real estate investment trusts and foreign private investors drawn to the markets by higher yields than available elsewhere.
“That influx [of investors] is really chasing high sustainable yields particularly in the office market,” Australian Unity head of property funds Mark Lumby said.
Office assets in Australia’s capital cities are producing yields of 6.5% to 7.5%, whereas similar assets in cities such as London, England yield only 3.5%, Lumby said at the manager’s quarterly outlook presentation to financial planners last week.
When global property market recover following economic downturns, yields on properties in gateway cities such as New York and London fall, and capital values rise, before that happens with similar properties in Australia and Asia, he said.
“Australian cities are late recovery markets and they will follow the gateway markets ... There’s still a lot of room for Sydney and Melbourne [office property yields] to tighten and as they tighten property prices will increase.”
Factors such as increasing supply and low tenant demand due to the weaker economy over the past few years had limited capital values in Australia’s cities, Lumby said.
However, foreign owners such as Singapore-based Far East Organization have been buying office buildings in Sydney and Melbourne and converting them into residential apartments.
“By converting office space to residential they are effectively taking some stock out of the market and that’s keeping a lid on vacancy rates,” he said.
Vacancy rates nationally for office buildings are 10.7% on average, ranging from 8.4% in Sydney to 14.7% in Brisbane.
“As we see tenant demand come back from office tenants we should see some good growth in capital values from office,” Lumby said.
His views are echoed by forecasts made by Colliers International in its second half Research and Forecast Report for CBD office, released last week.
Colliers International predicts that based on new supply, withdrawals, pre-commitments, backfill and demand, the Sydney CBD office market is experiencing a prolonged recovery in vacancy rates.
Vacancy rates in Melbourne’s CBD office market fell in the first half of 2014, but Colliers believes this is only temporary as 67,000 square metres of new office space will be completed in the second half of the year which will push vacancy rates higher.
Despite the forecast increase in vacancy rates, Colliers International predicts strong rental growth for offices in Melbourne’s CBDs, or around 3.7%.
Sydney's market is expected to have the strongest rental growth with of 7.7%, driven by growing demand from information technology and telecommunication companies.