The end of the great Chinese property splurge?

As more property data is released we are fast seeing concerning scenarios that raise more questions than answers.

Although it was not well documented it is clear that the previous Labor government relaxed foreign ownership regulations to appease the state governments who were experiencing revenue drains, as these changes then topped up stamp duty revenues. The only problem is that the two standout property players are Chinese buyers and investors who are busily topping up their self-managed superannuation funds (SMSF).

Given that the Abbott government decided that a Housing Minister was not warranted in their new government, it appears that the weight of this portfolio now rests firmly on the shoulders of Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens who is trying to balance Australia’s property imbalance.

The latest figures from the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) reveal overseas buyers purchased a record 5,091 established homes worth $5.4 billion last financial year, compared with 647 properties to a value of $810 million in 2009-10.

There is very little that the Australian government can do about the SMSFs, we are hearing strong rumours that in the May Budget the government will shut down the Chinese property splurge. Which many will argue is a good move for the long-term property markets given the overseas buyers are paying over and above the expected market price. More particularly with the Abbott government fighting opinion polls, such a move could vastly improve its consumer ratings.

With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) deciding to leave the cash rate at 2.50% for the foreseeable future, such a move would open the property markets up again to the first home buyers who have been swamped by the overseas buyers and investors. The RBA released their financial aggregates to January 2014 this week which shows that investment and housing lending has reached $1.33 trillion. This now takes investment loan accounts to 32.9% of all loans, which is the highest ever recorded in Australia.

Let’s face it, whilst new housing construction data showed an increase this month we are kidding ourselves if we believe we are keeping up with market demand. A recent study by Digital Finance Analytics estimated that over the next three years Australia will need more than 900,000 new properties to meet demand, when over the last 12 months Australia only managed to achieve 183,000 units. That would be a fail with a capital F! Given that locals priced out by $24b Chinese property splurge where a report by Credit Suisse said: “A generation of Australians are being priced out of the property market. Many face a life time of renting.”

Another factor that will have significant repercussions was the decision by the Canadian government on February 11 that a 28 – year old visa scheme designed to attract wealthy foreigners to the country would be axed, effective immediately. This announcement will bring greater attention to Australian real estate markets, which in turn will add additional pressures on the local markets to compete against the tsunami of funds coming into the country. Once word gets out that the Australian government could follow that same path as the Canadian government we will see quite possibly the strongest and most aggressive foreign acquisition activity ever seen before in Australia.

We are right in the middle of the four week period in 2013 when Mosman houses sat above the 100 mark – it now appears that it is highly likely that Mosman won’t break the 100 mark in 2014. Should this be the case then that would the first time in decades that this has happened.

The simple reality of our property markets are that stock levels are at all-time lows which place that responsibility firmly at the state and federal governments where significant policy changes will need to be implemented. The current Senate inquiry into affordable housing won’t offer an iota of intelligent reasoning or solutions.

What remains to be seen is whether or not the Treasurer Joe Hockey has the fortitude to make such a decision? My tip is that yes he will.