Harry Dent is wrong and should be taken to task: Charles Tarbey
The owner and managing director of Century21 Australasia, Charles Tarbey, says that people who have taken Harry Dent's advice should be holding the US property commentator to account.
In the country to speak at the Secure the Future events in Sydney and Brisbane, Dent has claimed that Austalian property prices will drop by up to 50% as our property market bubbles bursts.
But far from being in a "bubble", Tarbey says that our property market still hasn't experienced a full recovery.
"He said this last year, he said this the year before, and one of these years, he’s going to be right," Tarbey said of Dent.
"But in the meantime, you should be taking that guy to account.
"If you had have listened to Harry Dent two years ago when he came out, and you didn’t buy, you should be taking that guy to task right now, and saying 'You said, two years ago, that prices in Australia were going to drop 50%. You said that, two years ago, publicly. Why are you saying it today? I didn’t buy, when I could have bought and sold three or four properties in the last 24 months. But I didn’t because of you.'"
Australia is yet to see a real recovery in discretionary spending after the global financial crisis, said Tarbey, pointing to the sluggish performance of the holiday property market.
"When you have a holiday home, and you have your own home, and you’re forced to sell one, which is going to go first? It’s going to be the holiday home," said Tarbey.
"So the discretionary spending market and the coastal areas, and some magnificent holiday areas, drop by 50%. They haven’t actually started to recover."
According to Tarbey, we'll see real signs of a strengthening market when top end buyers in the holiday market are spending again.
"Harry Dent is wrong in the sense that we have not even had a recovery in the market," said Tarbey.
Tarbey claims that countries that are considered discretionary markets by overseas buyers tend to be the most exposed to global economic conditions, citing Spain as an example.
"There were massive, massive amounts of complexes and apartments to cater for the overseas investors and so on," said Tarbey.
"So Spain became a large discretionary spending area for investors." And when the GFC hit, Tarbey says, it was felt in the country's property market.
"That was the first place [buyers] were going to trash and let go, and that affected the market. But Australia’s not like that.
"What Harry Dent needs to understand," said Tarbey, "is that the reality is that 90% of Australia’s population lives in capital cities.
"So there’s so much out there if we need to spread. 90% of the people in Australia live in the coast. We live in larger houses on average than our counterparts in Europe. We live in an economy that’s been stable and safe, that’s been distant from many of the other issues in the world.
"We live in an environment where we have a climate that is mild, to say the least, most of the year, not erratic like what you see in the US. And we have a political system here that’s been tried and tested and is very strong.
"Why wouldn’t you pay more to live here?"