The Sydney market will kick-off very strongly in early 2014
Last week’s announcement by Holden to shut down operations in Australia in 2017, although I suspect they will move on well before this date, should not come as a great surprise. Back in the 1960’s the manufacturing industry in Australia employed 26% of the workforce and today it sits at just 8% and getting smaller. Ford and Mitsubishi have already announced previously that they too would be leaving our shore which now leaves Toyota as the sole motor vehicle manufacturer in Australia. Over the years I have read many speeches where a common theme is that by 2020 Australia will cease to have a manufacturing industry.
When I look at the 2012 Australian Securities and Investment Commission’s Annual Report the number of businesses registered reached 1.9 million, which happens to be a new Australian record, but the number of businesses entering external administration is also at the highest level since the Global Financial Crisis. The federal government was never expected to provide financial assistance for these ailing companies so why annually prop up the ailing motor vehicle industry? It no longer makes sense – it’s time to move on. Hence: The failing auto industry gets a final reality check.Putting all the politics aside history shows with Australian motor vehicle closures: 1992 – Nissan – Keating, 2008 – Mitsubishi – Rudd, 2013 – Ford – Gillard and 2013 – Holden – Abbott.
Labour pains add to the RBA’s challenges with the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) announcing yesterday that the unemployment rate rose to 5.8% in November, from 5.7% in October. The man with the toughest assignment is none other than Glenn Stevens our head teller at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) who warned against hubris; “We are building up this myth of 22 years uninterrupted growth. We shouldn’t do that – sooner or later we’ll have another downturn.”What remains to be seen is exactly what lessons have been learnt from the GFC.
As 2013 comes to a close it’s always interesting to look back in reflection and let’s look at interest rates which I might add Macquarie Bank called it nearly right saying they would get to 2.00% at the beginning of the year. I predicted they would actually go up so I was completely wrong although Macquarie Bank did predict 2.00% so they were half right. In 2014, at some stage I predict the cash rate will fall to 2.00% as the RBA tries to get its monetary policy back firmly on the front foot.
At RWM our December quarter turned out to be an all-time record which has us clearly of the opinion that the local real estate market will kick-off very strongly in February 2014. Again, the market is easily measured by the number of properties on the market which for the better part of 2013 saw record low numbers of properties on the market.
Interesting observation in 2013 was that we really started to see the Chinese buyers making serious inroads into the Mosman markets especially in the house sector. Chinese buyers tower over Australian real estate – Where China spends its vast US$3.7 trillion foreign reserves is going to dominate asset prices and developments around the world. Right now apartments in Sydney and Melbourne are in favour with the Chinese.The number of houses keeps diminishing with just 88 houses for sale in Mosman, Cremorne and Neutral Bay which in itself would be another record.
Wishing you a Merry Christmas and a safe and prosperous New Year.
Robert Simeon is a director of Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985.
He has also been writing real estate blog Virtual Realty News since 2000.
The RWM real estate model has sold in excess of $1 billion in database sales globally.