Slowing population growth part of the reason new housing starts are in the dumps: Michael Matusik

The latest statistics from the ABS show that Australia’s resident population reached 22.62 million last year, increasing by 320,800 people over the last 12 months.  This represents an annual growth rate of 1.4%, the lowest since 2006 and lower than the annual average growth rate of 1.8% over the five years to June 2011.

This is one of the reasons why new housing starts have been in the dumps in recent years.  Not enough people are moving to Oz.

All states and territories experienced population growth in 2010-11, with the largest population increases continuing to be in Australia’s three most populous states. Victoria had the greatest growth (up by 84,200 people), followed by New South Wales (82,200) and Queensland (74,800).  This is only the third time in the last 10 years that Queensland has not had the largest growth of all states and territories.

Queensland has been broken for some time.  Business and residents need legitimate reasons – other than the nice weather – to move to the Sunshine State.  The LNP white-wash will hopefully get the ball rolling in this regard.  My two-bob’s worth of how this could best be done, as one would expect, is on its way.  I have been biding my time until after Easter.  Watch this space.

More than 14.5 million people, close to two-thirds of Australia’s population, reside in the eight capital cities, and the combined population of the capital city/urban areas increased by over 224,000 over the last 12 months.

Melbourne recorded the largest growth of all capitals, increasing by 67,000 people, followed by Sydney (60,000), Perth (43,000), and Brisbane (35,000).  Population growth in Melbourne equated to an average increase of close to 1,300 people per week, while the population of Sydney increased by over 1,100 people per week.

When factoring in the Gold and Sunshine coasts plus out west to Toowoomba, south-east Queensland’s population increased by 52,000 people last year or by 1,000 people per week.  Just under 3 million people (2,965,000) now live across the south-east corner of the state.

Many local government areas that had large and/or rapid growth were located on or near the boundaries of capital cities, where more land tends to be available for subdivision and housing development.  In Melbourne, the population of outer-suburban Wyndham increased by 12,200 or 7.8%.  This was both the largest and fastest increase of all Victorian municipalities and the fastest in the country.  Strong growth was also experienced in Whittlesea (up 8,700 people or 5.6%) and Melton (6,000 people or 5.6%).

As the table below shows, Brisbane City Council continues to experience the most growth with its permanent population lifting by 14,000 last year.  The table also provides details as to the fastest-growing municipalities across Queensland.

The inner-city areas of Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne had population increases among the largest in Australia, increasing by 3,500; 3,450 and 2,500 people respectively.  Perth was the fastest-growing of all the inner capital city areas, increasing in population from 18,000 to 18,600 people or 3.7%.

Since these stats were released, the number of people settling down under has risen substantially.  Close to 14,000 people are now arriving each month, compared with the lows of 9,500 per month in late 2010.

Our modelling suggests that Australia’s resident population could reach 23 million by late July this year.  Australia’s current population growth rate is around 350,000 per annum.

Michael Matusik is the director of independent property advisory Matusik Property Insights. Michael is a 25-year veteran in the industry and his firm has helped over 550 new residential developments come to fruition.  Michael has launched a new initiative, called Think Matusik.  Think Matusik brings together expert opinion and select property opportunities.