Employment soared higher in October: Pete Wargent

Economists had expected employment to fall by 30,000 in October as Victoria's lockdown persisted.

 

Instead we got a rollicking increase of 178,800 or 1.4 per cent, most of which were full-time jobs.

 

There was a big leap in participation to 65.8 per cent (a huge beat - economist forecasts were for a flat result here), which is now returning close to record highs and only 0.1 pts lower than a year earlier.

 

Despite the leap in participation, the unemployment rate has nestled in at 7 per cent, which is far, far better than previously feared. 

 

 

How did economists land so far away from the target?

 

It's hard to say for sure, but the huge rebound in Victorian employment in the month - despite the lockdown persisting through October - was an interesting and totally unexpected result. 

 

Queensland has added back a stunning 206,000 jobs in only 5 months, to see total employment actually higher than a year ago.

 

But despite ostensibly adding 82,000 jobs in October, total employment in Victoria is still 124,000 lower than a year earlier.

 

 

 

To date 648,000 of the 875,000 jobs lost have been recovered across only five months, so we are already 74 per cent of the way back to employment topping new highs at above 13 million.

 

Overall, this was a great result, which introduces the exciting possibility of a strong snap-back in the Aussie economy in 2021. 

 

Lest anyone becomes too excited at this early stage in the recovery, measures of underemployment remain understandably high, and monthly hours worked were still 3.4 per cent lower than a year earlier (largely due to a huge year-on-year decline in Victoria). 

 

In October the underemployment rate by 1.0 pts to 10.4 per cent, but that's still 1.9 pts higher than a year ago.