Brisbane set to be Australia's property market leader: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

Brisbane set to be Australia's property market leader: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder
Brisbane set to be Australia's property market leader: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

EXPERT OBSERVER

The Brisbane market has shrugged off the impacts of the pandemic and is in its strongest position in five years to generate price growth. Increasingly, this is translating into evidence of uplift in property values.

Our analysis of sales activity across the Brisbane metropolitan area has identified 56 suburbs with rising momentum, the highest number since late in 2015 and double the number identified in our quarterly survey six months ago.

The numbers show an all-round improvement in the Brisbane market, with a sharp reduction in the number of declining suburbs and a reduction also in the number of danger markets.

Brisbane’s affordability relative to the biggest cities is helping to boost its market, with more people relocating to South-East Queensland from Sydney and other parts of Australia. Brisbane is a natural beneficiary of the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle trend and is also benefiting from strong consumer confidence as a result of the success in controlling Covid-19.

It’s notable that Brisbane is prominent in the forecasts for prices in 2021 from the major banks. The NAB Residential Property Survey is tipping Brisbane to be the joint leader on dwelling price growth next year, alongside Adelaide and Hobart – with a 7.4% annual rise and similar growth in 2022.

I think this is a tad conservative – and so does ANZ, which is forecasting Brisbane to rise almost 10% next year, with only Perth tipped to do better. Westpac and Commonwealth Bank have also tipped good growth in 2021.

In the six years we have been conducting our quarterly surveys of sales activity and prices, it has been common for northern Brisbane to dominate the positive results – and that is certainly the case in this Summer 2020 survey. Of the 56 suburbs with rising sales activity, 12 are in the Brisbane-north precinct of the Brisbane City Council area and 13 are in the neighbouring Moreton Bay Region.

Both precincts also have a high number of suburbs with consistent sales activity across multiple successive quarters, a notable achievement given the negative pressures in this year of the pandemic.

The rising suburbs in the north of Greater Brisbane include Murrumba Downs (where quarterly sales activity has been 39 44 73), Ashgrove (quarterly sales 54 57 60 72 76 50 78) and Bellara (quarterly sales 23 30 26 40)

While the most prolific markets are in the north, there also has been a notable revival in Logan City in the south. The municipality is the urban bridge between Brisbane City and the Gold Coast and traditionally attracts buyers seeking cheap real estate and good infrastructure.

Logan City markets have been in the doldrums in recent years: six months ago we identified 12 suburbs with a pattern of declining sales, but only five in this latest survey – and there are now nine suburbs with rising sales momentum. At a time when first-home buyers are very active and others are seeking an affordable lifestyle, it’s perhaps not surprising that Logan City would show signs of uplift.

Nearby Ipswich City – another centre of affordable buying in the south-west of the metro area – has only two growth suburbs, so Logan City is the standout of southern Brisbane.

There are growth markets in other parts of the Greater Brisbane area as well – Brisbane-inner (4), Brisbane-east (5), Brisbane-south (3) Brisbane-west (3) and Redland City (5) all have some suburbs with rising sales activity.

There are still six suburbs we classify as danger markets, but that is half as many as two years ago. These are all inner-city suburbs where the market is dominated by high-rise apartments and where vacancy rates continue to be high, in contrast to the rest of the Greater Brisbane Area, and sales rates remain low.

Our analysis of price trends across the Brisbane metropolitan area shows that most suburbs have recorded house price growth in the last 12 months, but an even higher percentage have had growth in the most recent quarter.

This again shows that the city has done well through the pandemic period.

Our analysis shows that 62% of suburbs have recorded annual growth in their median house prices, but 73% have had uplift in the latest quarter.

It’s clear that the top end of the Brisbane market is doing best in this climate, driven partly by the reality that highly-ranked, well-located suburbs in this city often have median house prices in the $800,000s and $900,000s. For people leaving Sydney and Melbourne to relocate to South-East Queensland as part of the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle, this looks attractive.

Suburbs to record annual median house price growth above 20% include HIGHGATE HILL (28%), Fig Tree Pocket (25%), NUNDAH (20%) and Windsor (21%).

The inner-city house markets (in contrast to the apartment markets) are doing well, with good annual price growth in Bardon (10%) and Coorparoo (15%), as well as HIGHGATE HILL.

Inner northern suburbs are also performing, including Grange (17%), Windsor and NUNDAH.

The upper end western suburbs are a standout. In addition to Fig Tree Pocket, there has been strong annual growth in median house prices in Sherwood (12%), St Lucia (14%) and Toowong (13%).

In the south, Yeronga (15%) and Greenslopes (10%) have done well, while in the affordable far north, there has been notable uplift in Woody Point (15%) and Beachmere (10%).

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
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Terry Ryder

Terry Ryder

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au.

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