85% of experts say economy won't recover till 2022: Finder.com.au

85% of experts say economy won't recover till 2022: Finder.com.au
85% of experts say economy won't recover till 2022: Finder.com.au

More than four-fifths of experts (29/34, 85%) say the economy won’t fully recover until at least 2022.

However, more than one-third of experts (37%, 14/38) expect Australia to have its first quarter of GDP growth in Q3 2020.

Mark Crosby, applied macroeconomist at Monash University, said Q3 GDP growth is more about how bad the preceding quarters have been.

“If growth in Q3 2020 was measured against any quarter in 2019 it would be negative.

“In other words it's growth but nowhere near a reversion towards trend in Q3, not the end of recession (other than in definition) and not the end of rising unemployment,” Crosby said.

Restaurants and bars won’t return to normal until 2021

Those anxious for a "normal" restaurant experience once restrictions ease, may be waiting longer than they think.

Nearly half (47%, 15/31) of the experts who weighed in on hospitality said restaurants and bars won’t be operating at full capacity and without social distancing restrictions until 2021.

Less than a third (10, 31%) expected to see this happening this year.

Cooke said while restrictions are beginning to be relaxed, Australia still has a way to go until things return to normal.

“While restrictions are beginning to ease, it’s clear we’re still a long way off from booking a big group table at the pub over the long weekend,” Cooke said.

More than one-third of experts (37%, 14/38) expect Australia to have its first quarter of GDP growth in Q3 2020.

Mark Crosby, applied macroeconomist at Monash University, said Q3 GDP growth is more about how bad the preceding quarters have been.

“If growth in Q3 2020 was measured against any quarter in 2019 it would be negative.

“In other words it's growth but nowhere near a reversion towards trend in Q3, not the end of recession (other than in definition) and not the end of rising unemployment,” Crosby said.

Restaurants and bars won’t return to normal until 2021

Those anxious for a "normal" restaurant experience once restrictions ease, may be waiting longer than they think.

Nearly half (47%, 15/31) of the experts who weighed in on hospitality said restaurants and bars won’t be operating at full capacity and without social distancing restrictions until 2021.

Less than a third (10, 31%) expected to see this happening this year.

Cooke said while restrictions are beginning to be relaxed, Australia still has a way to go until things return to normal.

“While restrictions are beginning to ease, it’s clear we’re still a long way off from booking a big group table at the pub over the long weekend,” Cooke said.

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Economy Finder.com.au

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