The following is the statement provided by Michele Bullock which can be <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2023/mr-23-35.html">found here</a>.

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent and the interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances unchanged at 4.25&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent.

Last month, the Board increased interest rates by 25&nbsp;basis points, following a period of four months where it had held interest rates steady. This decision reflected the Board’s view that progress in bringing inflation back to the target range of 2&nbsp;to 3&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent was looking slower than earlier forecast. While the economy has been experiencing a period of below-trend growth, it was stronger than expected over the first half of the year. Underlying inflation was higher than expected at the time of the August forecasts, including across a broad range of services. Conditions in the labour market had eased but remained tight. Housing prices were continuing to rise across the country as was the number of new mortgages. Given this, the Board judged that the risk of inflation remaining higher for longer had risen and an increase in interest rates was therefore warranted to be more assured that inflation would return to target in a reasonable timeframe.

The limited information received on the domestic economy since the November meeting has been broadly in line with expectations. The monthly CPI indicator for October suggested that inflation is continuing to moderate, driven by the goods sector; the inflation update did not, however, provide much more information on services inflation. Overall, measures of inflation expectations remain consistent with the inflation target. Wages growth picked up in the September quarter but this was expected given that it captured the earlier Fair Work Commission decision on award wages. Wages growth is not expected to increase much further and remains consistent with the inflation target, provided productivity growth picks up. Conditions in the labour market also continued to ease gradually, although they remain tight.

Higher interest rates are working to establish a more sustainable balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy. The impact of the more recent rate rises, including last month's, will continue to flow through the economy. High inflation is weighing on people’s real incomes and household consumption growth is weak, as is dwelling investment. Holding the cash rate steady at this meeting will allow time to assess the impact of the increases in interest rates on demand, inflation and the labour market.

Returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s priority. High inflation makes life difficult for everyone and damages the functioning of the economy. It erodes the value of savings, hurts household budgets, makes it harder for businesses to plan and invest, and worsens income inequality. And if high inflation were to become entrenched in people’s expectations, it would be much more costly to reduce later, involving even higher interest rates and a larger rise in unemployment. To date, medium-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.

There are still significant uncertainties around the outlook. While there have been encouraging signs on goods inflation abroad, services price inflation has remained persistent and the same could occur in Australia. There also remains a high level of uncertainty around the outlook for the Chinese economy and the implications of the conflicts abroad. Domestically, there are uncertainties regarding the lags in the effect of monetary policy and how firms’ pricing decisions and wages will respond to the slower growth in the economy at a time when the labour market remains tight. The outlook for household consumption also remains uncertain, with many households experiencing a painful squeeze on their finances, while some are benefiting from rising housing prices, substantial savings buffers and higher interest income.

Whether further tightening of monetary policy is required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks. In making its decisions, the Board will continue to pay close attention to developments in the global economy, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.

Urban Editorial

RBA keeps rates on hold at final meeting of 2023

EXPERT OBSERVER

This week, the NSW government announced almost A$500 million towards boosting the uptake of electric vehicles. In its new <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/initiative/nsw-governments-electric-vehicle-strategy">electric vehicle strategy</a>, the government will waive stamp duty for cars under $78,000, develop more charging infrastructure, offer rebates to 25,000 drivers, and more.

Given the transport sector is Australia&rsquo;s <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/6686d48f-3f9c-448d-a1b7-7e410fe4f376/files/nggi-quarterly-update-mar-2019.pdf">second-largest polluter</a>, it&rsquo;s a good thing Australian governments are starting to plan for a transition to electric vehicles (EVs).

But transitioning from cities full of petrol-guzzling vehicles to cities full of electric ones won&rsquo;t address all of the environmental and social problems associated with car dependence and mass manufacturing.

So, let&rsquo;s look at these problems in more detail, and why public transport really is the best way forward.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7633 project_image_fid=32168]

<h2>Mounting disadvantage and health issues</h2>

EVs do have environmental advantages over conventional vehicles. In particular, they generate less carbon emissions during their lifetime. Of course, much of the emissions reductions will depend on how much electricity <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-the-environmental-footprint-of-electric-versus-fossil-cars-124762">comes from renewable sources</a>.

But carbon emissions are only one of the many problems associated with the dominance of private cars as a form of mobility in cities.

Let&rsquo;s start with a few of the social issues. This includes the huge amount of <a href="https://apo.org.au/sites/default/files/resource-files/2013-11/apo-nid59916.pdf">space devoted to car driving</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.10.044">parking</a> in our neighbourhoods. This can <a href="https://theconversation.com/reclaiming-the-streets-we-all-can-have-a-say-in-the-new-normal-after-coronavirus-137703">crowd out other forms of land use</a>, including other more sustainable forms of mobility such as walking and cycling.

There are the financial and mental health costs of <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-city-workers-average-commute-has-blown-out-to-66-minutes-a-day-how-does-yours-compare-120598">congestion</a>, as well, with Australian city workers spending, on average, 66 minutes getting to and from work each day. <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/statistics/safety">Injuries and fatalities on roads</a> are also increasing, and <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11524-009-9433-9">inactivity and isolation</a> associated with driving can impact our physical health.

Car-dependent cities also contribute to <a href="https://trid.trb.org/view/1154961">disadvantage for people who don&rsquo;t have access to cars</a>, and uneven <a href="https://apo.org.au/node/449">financial vulnerability</a> associated with the high costs of car ownership and use.

Indeed, some of these problems could be made worse &mdash; for instance, subsidies for EVs could end up favouring wealthier people who can afford new cars.

<h2>Mining for resources</h2>

A mass global uptake of EVs will generate major environmental problems, too. Most concerning of these is the use of finite mineral resources required for their construction, and the environmental and labour conditions of their extraction.

This was recently highlighted in a <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions">recent report by the International Energy Agency</a>. As the agency&rsquo;s executive director Fatih Birol said, there&rsquo;s a

<blockquote>
looming mismatch between the world&rsquo;s strengthened climate ambitions and the availability of critical minerals that are essential to realising those ambitions.
</blockquote>

Minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel and copper are key ingredients required to make EVs.

As the report noted, EVs use double the amount of copper than conventional vehicles. EVs also require considerable amounts of lithium, cobalt and graphite that are hardly required at all for conventional vehicles. And it expects demand for lithium to grow 40-fold between 2020 and 2040, driven by EV production to meet climate targets.

<figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408077/original/file-20210624-13-12t8z1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408077/original/file-20210624-13-12t8z1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408077/original/file-20210624-13-12t8z1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=400&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408077/original/file-20210624-13-12t8z1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=400&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408077/original/file-20210624-13-12t8z1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=400&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408077/original/file-20210624-13-12t8z1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=503&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408077/original/file-20210624-13-12t8z1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=503&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408077/original/file-20210624-13-12t8z1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=503&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" /></a>

<figcaption>There are better ways to cut transport emissions than greater uptake of electric vehicles. Shutterstock</figcaption>
</figure>

There is <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/speed-of-green-energy-shift-triggers-supply-alarm-20210506-p57pi5">considerable discussion</a> of Australia&rsquo;s natural advantage as a supplier of some of these minerals, as we have large reserves of lithium and rare-earth metals beneath parts of the continent.

But before governments and mining bodies rush to exploit these reserves, they need to ensure much more is done to avoid the injustices perpetrated against Traditional Owners and their lands and heritage. The recent appalling <a href="https://theconversation.com/rio-tinto-just-blasted-away-an-ancient-aboriginal-site-heres-why-that-was-allowed-139466">destruction at Juukan Gorge</a> by Rio Tinto&rsquo;s iron ore operation is just one example of this.

<a href="https://theconversation.com/critical-minerals-are-vital-for-renewable-energy-we-must-learn-to-mine-them-responsibly-131547">Mining also has its own environmental problems</a>, such as land clearing and associated biodiversity loss, the pollution and contaminants it produces, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/arent-we-in-a-drought-the-australian-black-coal-industry-uses-enough-water-for-over-5-million-people-137591">intensive water use</a>.

The conditions of extracting these critical minerals in other parts of the world are dire. There&rsquo;s the oppressive working conditions <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/dec/18/how-the-race-for-cobalt-risks-turning-it-from-miracle-metal-to-deadly-chemical">in cobalt mining in the Democratic Republic of the Congo</a>, the conflict over <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/14/electric-cost-lithium-mining-decarbonasation-salt-flats-chile">Indigenous rights in Chile&rsquo;s lithium mining areas</a>, and environmental destruction associated with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/gallery/2015/apr/15/rare-earthenware-a-journey-to-the-toxic-source-of-luxury-goods">mining rare earth minerals in China</a>.

<figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408075/original/file-20210624-21-1nlr7vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="Lithium mine with brine pools" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408075/original/file-20210624-21-1nlr7vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408075/original/file-20210624-21-1nlr7vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=450&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408075/original/file-20210624-21-1nlr7vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=450&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408075/original/file-20210624-21-1nlr7vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=450&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408075/original/file-20210624-21-1nlr7vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=565&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408075/original/file-20210624-21-1nlr7vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=565&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408075/original/file-20210624-21-1nlr7vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=565&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" /></a>

<figcaption>Mining for rare-earth metals such as lithium comes with enormous environmental impacts. Shutterstock</figcaption>
</figure>

<h2>Broadening ideas about transport</h2>

To focus on these problems is not to suggest the new policies on electric vehicles are unimportant, or that they don&rsquo;t stand to have some positive environmental impact.

The point is private EVs are not a solution to the combined challenges of reducing our urban environmental footprints and making better cities for all, and that they have their own problems.

Instead, we should develop a good mass public transport system with extensive and frequent coverage. Alongside urban development with a more even distribution of jobs, services and opportunities, investing in better public transport could reduce car dependence in our cities.

This would have a range of environmental and social benefits: making more space available for people instead of machines, extending the benefits of mobility to people who can&rsquo;t or don&rsquo;t drive, and reducing demand for finite minerals.

Even fossil-fuelled public transport has fewer emissions than conventional car travel. Data from the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter8.pdf">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> shows the most fuel-efficient buses and trains generate less than half the carbon emissions per passenger kilometre of fuel-efficient cars. Of course, public transport powered by renewables will be even better.

<figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408072/original/file-20210624-15-1chlrge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="Trams on Swanston Street" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408072/original/file-20210624-15-1chlrge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408072/original/file-20210624-15-1chlrge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=450&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408072/original/file-20210624-15-1chlrge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=450&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408072/original/file-20210624-15-1chlrge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=450&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408072/original/file-20210624-15-1chlrge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=566&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408072/original/file-20210624-15-1chlrge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=566&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408072/original/file-20210624-15-1chlrge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=566&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" /></a>

<figcaption>Melbourne&rsquo;s tram network is the biggest in the world. Shutterstock</figcaption>
</figure>

But as things stand, we are far from having such a city. The benefits of good public transport and public services are <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1068/a140008g">unevenly distributed across our cities</a>.

In Sydney, for example, there are significant investments in new public transport infrastructure in some parts of the city, such as <a href="https://www.sydneymetro.info/west/project-overview">Metro West</a> and the recently completed North West Metro. There are <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/entire-nsw-rail-network-to-go-green-by-2025-smaller-ferries-to-go-electric-20210610-p58013.html">welcome commitments to reduce emissions</a> in that sector, too.

But we&rsquo;re a long way from planning new developments and redevelopments to make public transport a viable alternative to cars. The <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-18/western-sydney-urban-sprawl-lesson-for-other-australian-cities/100072140">lack of public transport infrastructure in newly constructed, master-planned</a> estates on Sydney&rsquo;s urban fringe is the most glaring example.

Ultimately, it&rsquo;s important that a transition to electric vehicles doesn&rsquo;t dominate the discussion we need to have about urban transport.

Our challenge is to simultaneously reduce the carbon footprint of different forms of transport, while also thinking much more broadly about the sustainability and justice of the system of mobility that&rsquo;s so central to daily life in our cities.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163247/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" width="1" />

&nbsp;

This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cramming-cities-full-of-electric-vehicles-means-were-still-depending-on-cars-and-thats-a-huge-problem-163247">original article</a>.

This week, the NSW government announced almost A$500 million towards boosting the uptake of electric vehicles

max.kwok_55688

Cramming cities full of electric vehicles means we’re still depending on cars — and that’s a huge problem

The Commonwealth Bank&rsquo;s head of Australian economics, Gareth Aird has forecast the RBA will lift cash rate in 2022, about two years earlier than the central bank has itself suggested.

&ldquo;Our central scenario has the RBA delivering the first hike in the cash rate in November 2022,&rdquo; Aird advised in a note to clients.

&ldquo;We have pencilled in an increase of 15 basis points, which would take the cash rate to 0.25 per cent.

&ldquo;We expect that to be followed by an increase of 25 basis points in December 2022.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5490 project_image_fid=78492]

&quot;We have three further 25-basis-point hikes in Q1 23, Q2 23 and Q3 23 [the first, second and third quarters of 2023].&rdquo;

It would take the cash rate to 1.25 per cent, where it was in June 2019.

But it depends on fiscal policy remaining expansionary and the border opening to immigrants in mid-2022, Aird added.

Variable mortgage rates after a 1.15-percentage-point rise would move from 3.1 percent to 4.25 per cent for owner occupiers and from 3.44 to 4.59 per cent for investors.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=97810 project_image_fid=160635]

On a $500,000 mortgage it would result in a $324 per month increase in repayments.

Aird is the latest economist to bring forward their timing forecast as ANZ&#39;s economists recently advised their forecast was for the first rate rise to come in late 2023.

Westpac shifted its first rate rise forecast to March 2023 after the recent job numbers.

The Commonwealth Bank’s head of Australian economics, Gareth Aird forecasts the cash rate will take place within 18 months

jchancellor

CBA forecast RBA will lift cash rate in late 2022 

McGrath Estate Agents has entered into a referral agreement with Newground Capital Partners.

The alliance expects to broaden its sales capability across its apartment projects business, McGrath chief Eddie Law said.

ICG-Newground is a company headed by London listed alternative asset manager Intermediate Capital Group (&ldquo;ICG&rdquo;).

Law said McGrath was often the first point of contact for developers to determine site availability and market sentiment and to formulate product type, format and price.

&ldquo;The intent is to leverage of our proven core capabilities of agency project marketing, property management and buyer mortgage provision, by acting as a conduit to the delivery of development capital, to assist the developer both acquire and develop the site.&quot;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7758 project_image_fid=150461]

He said McGrath want to be a &ldquo;one stop shop&rdquo; to deliver capital, agency and management services on a market competitive basis with ICG-Newground having an entrepreneurial approach to doing business not necessarily seen by traditional banking institutions.&nbsp;

&quot;We are already engaging and quoting actively on several residential property development opportunities in both Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane.&quot;

Daniel Erez, head of real estate Australia &amp; New Zealand for ICG-Newground said in a strong residential market, developers need to act quickly and decisively knowing that their financier can move with them.&nbsp;

ICG Plc, which manages $74.5 billion in private debt, credit, and equity, will launched a new real estate credit fund targeting a $1 billion raise.

McGrath Estate Agents has entered into a referral agreement with Newground Capital Partners

McGrath and ICG-Newground form alliance to boost finance access for development projects

EXPERT OBSERVER

The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data shows that new lending in South Australia is at record levels as South Australian Senators look set to be the vital votes to save safe lending laws.

Home lending is booming in South Australia. We haven&rsquo;t seen such startling levels of lending since records began in 2003.

The ABS figures show:&nbsp;

- Lending for new South Australian owner-occupier loans is at the highest level since records began in 2003. Lending for new homes is 41% higher than in April 2020.

- Lending for South Australian first home buyers in April 2021 is 48% higher than April 2020.

- New lending for investor housing has increased 41% since April 2020.

<img alt="" height="1026" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2021-06-10_at_1.22.43_pm.png" width="1358" />

The general signs of economic recovery mask the strong risks for borrowers in a booming housing market.

The state faces the perfect storm of rising levels of household debt, ultra-cheap credit, flatlining wages, hidden underemployment and key government support tapering off.

Housing unaffordability is also reaching a crisis point in South Australia. Median house prices in Adelaide have ticked over half a million dollars. Families are having to take on increasingly larger debts to simply enter the market.&nbsp;&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6082 project_image_fid=37154]

The ABS data comes as the government struggles to garner enough support in the Senate to axe safe lending laws.

The laws were put in place in 2009 after the Global Financial Crisis to prevent reckless lending observed in the lead up and during the crisis.

The legislation has been slammed by key crossbench Senators, including Senator Jacqui Lambie and Senator Pauline Hanson.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=9286 project_image_fid=82295]

Safe lending laws are a critical consumer protection to ensure that banks do not lend recklessly to Australians.

Now more than ever, when credit is cheap and home lending is booming, we need strong safe lending laws to ensure banks don&#39;t sell people into loans they won&rsquo;t be able to afford down the track.

The Banking Royal Commission heard shocking stories of banks lending money to people who the lender knew would never be able to repay the loan, including people with disabilities, pensioners, and problem gamblers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=22077 project_image_fid=72525]

If safe lending laws are axed, there won&rsquo;t be any penalties for this kind of behaviour. Banks won&rsquo;t be fined, and they won&rsquo;t have to pay compensation.

Rebekha Sharkie from Centre Alliance spoke out against the government&rsquo;s changes in the lower house, and independent Senator Rex Patrick has expressed strong concerns.

We encourage Senators Stirling Griff and Rex Patrick to continue to stand up to the banks and government, and vote down the government&rsquo;s changes when they hit the Senate.

People need protection from unsafe lending, as Senate vote imminent

Home lending in SA at record levels: CHOICE

EXPERT INSIGHT

So you think it&rsquo;s the right time to dive in and buy a home.

I can&rsquo;t tell you you&rsquo;re wrong. I can tell you it would have been better to do it before prices began soaring, and that if they keep soaring it will get worse still.

When the year began, the typical Sydney price was <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/corelogic-december-home-value-indices">$872,000</a>. Five months later at the start of June it is <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/australias-housing-boom-rolls-national-home-values-lifting-another-22-may">$970,000</a>.

That&rsquo;s a jump of almost $100,000 in a matter of months &mdash; an awfully big price for procrastinating.

In Melbourne the typical price has climbed from $682,000 to $740,500. In Perth it has climbed from $471,000 to $521,500, and so on.

And banks are beginning to withdraw the cheapest of their still-very-cheap mortgage rates, at this stage mainly the fixed four-year rates which had been below <a href="https://www.domain.com.au/news/house-hunters-facing-rising-fixed-mortgage-rates-with-further-hikes-expected-1054965/">2%</a>.

So why on earth wouldn&rsquo;t you dive in, cut your living expenses to the bare minimum and try and buy a home while it&rsquo;s the least bit possible?

One (slight) reason to relax is mortgage rates. Despite the increases in fixed four-year rates, three-year rates have barely moved. That&rsquo;s because the Reserve Bank has promised to hold the three-year bond rate <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2021/mr-21-09.html">constant</a> at 0.1%.

Buying has become a bigger commitment

The three-year bond rate determines the cost to banks of their three-year fixed rate mortgages.

The Reserve Bank has said it does not expect to lift its 0.1% cash rate until &ldquo;2024 at the earliest&rdquo;. Movements in the cash rate determine movements in variable mortgage rates.

But there is another reason for proceeding with caution and taking stock.

For our parents, buying a home was an exceptionally good deal, not only because homes were cheaper &mdash; until the end of the 1990s homes typically cost between two and three times household after-tax income, they now cost closer to five &mdash; but also because over time the loan became easier to pay off.

That isn&rsquo;t because mortgage rates were coming down &mdash; at times they were going up &mdash; it&rsquo;s because during our parents&rsquo; times wages (and prices) were climbing.

It meant that even if someone of our parents&rsquo; generation just squeaked through one of the bank&rsquo;s tests about their ability to make payments on a mortgage, a few years and lots of inflation and several big wage rises down the track those mortgage payments shrank compared to everything else.

Once, wage rises took care of repayments

Many of our parents paid off their mortgages early.

One way to look at this is that the bank&rsquo;s ability-to-repay calculators were set too harshly. They failed to account for future hefty wage rises and inflation.

It&rsquo;s probably also true that they were set more generously than they might have been in an implicit acknowledgement of what the assistant governor in charge of the Reserve Bank&rsquo;s economic branch Luci Ellis calls &ldquo;<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2006/2006-12/global-trends.html">mortgage tilt</a>&rdquo;.

The former governor, Glenn Stevens, used another term, &ldquo;<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/1997/sp-ag-081097.html">front-end loading</a>&rdquo;.

Mortgages were &lsquo;front-end loaded&rsquo;

When inflation was high, and as a consequence interest rates were high, wages that climbed rapidly with high inflation made the servicing burden &ldquo;most acute in the very early phase of a loan, falling over time&rdquo;.

On a graph (and the former governor presented a graph) the line showing payments as a portion of income tilts down over time.

In a world of lower inflation and interest rates, the tilt becomes flatter.

By now (Stevens published the graph in 1997) the line must be near horizontal.

If wage growth remains near the <a href="https://twitter.com/1petermartin/status/1399520798734389250/photo/1">record lows</a> the treasury is forecasting it will become scarcely any easier to make payments on a home loan over time.

Yet the banks are still handing out loans using the sort of formulas they used to.

If you get a loan you&rsquo;ll be assessed as being able to (just) make the payments as always, but you&rsquo;ll be denied the near certainty of being able to more easily meet the payments as time goes on.

Now, we retire mortgaged

This is a different from the risk you&rsquo;ll also run of today&rsquo;s ultra-low mortgage rates climbing (which banks do take into account in deciding whether to give you a loan).

The proportion of homeowners reaching retirement age while still paying off their mortgage has doubled in 20 years. Which might be why some banks ask for details of your super before granting you a loan. It isn&rsquo;t an idle inquiry.

Might things get better? Maybe, if we can get wages moving again.

Evidence given to Tuesday&rsquo;s post-budget Senate estimate hearing provides cause for hope, and despair.

Super hikes will make things worse

The budget forecasts for wage growth over the next four financial years are incredibly low &mdash; 1.5%, 2.25%, 2.5% and 2.75%

On Tuesday Treasury Secretary Steven Kennedy revealed that each would have been higher &mdash; 0.4 points higher &mdash; had the government not persisted with the five scheduled annual increases in compulsory superannuation contributions of 0.5% of salary starting in July.

The treasury believes each increase will slice 0.4 percentage points from wage growth, on the basis that employers, who are legally required to pay the contributions, will have to find the money somewhere.

It&rsquo;s the same conclusion reached by the government&rsquo;s <a href="https://theconversation.com/that-extra-youre-about-to-get-in-super-most-of-it-will-come-from-you-but-dont-expect-the-ads-to-tell-you-that-154723">retirement incomes review</a>.

It&rsquo;s cause for hope because it means that when those five increases stop (in mid-2026, or sooner if the government stops them mid-track) wages might be able to grow more strongly.

It&rsquo;s cause for despair because if the treasury is right, we are denying ourselves wage rises we could use in return for super we will increasingly use to pay down our mortgages.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161873/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" width="1" z5zyoz6tp="" />

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-martin-682709">Peter Martin</a>, Visiting Fellow, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a>

This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/paying-off-a-home-loan-used-to-be-easier-than-it-looked-its-now-harder-heres-why-161873">original article</a>.

jordan_55689

Paying off a home loan used to be easier than it looked - it's now harder - here's why

Heritage Bank has announced cuts to mortgage rates for investors.
 
Heritage has reduced both variable and fixed term interest rates for investors from today June 3.
 
There is a 2.39% rate on Heritage’s 1, 2 and 3-year investor fixed rate principal and interest product for borrowers with a loan to value ratio (LVR) equal to or less than 90%. 

It reflected a reduction of up to 0.40% Heritage Bank CEO Peter Lock sai.

“As a mutual, our aim is always to provide the best possible rates we can for our borrowers and these out-of-cycle cuts demonstrate that.
 
“Current conditions mean that we’re in a position to reduce rates for borrowers."
 
Heritage also offers an interest rate of 2.49% on 1, 2 and 3-year investor Fixed Rate interest-only loans, for borrowers with an LVR equal to or less than 90%. 

It reflected a 0.50% cut on the 1-year interest-only fixed rate.
 
Other interest rate cuts for investors include 0.10% reductions on Home Advantage Variable for borrowers of $250,000 to $699,999 with an LVR of equal to or less than 80%.

The last four-year fixed home loan rate under 2 per cent has ended the cheaper longer-term fixed rates in Australia.

At the start of the year RateCity noted there were 32 four-year fixed rates under 2 per cent, including from three of the big four banks.

BankVic was the last lender to hold out, however, on June 1, 2021 their rate rose from 1.95 per cent to 2.29 per cent.

Heritage don't offer four year lows, with their 5 year fixed at 2.89%.

Earlier this year the Queensland-based Heritage Bank announced it would open two new branches in New South Wales - at Macquarie Park in north-west Sydney, and one at Tweed Heads. 
 
Heritage opened new branches at Castle Hill and Parramatta in 2019 to kick-start an interstate expansion program, initially targeting Sydney and then looking to Melbourne. 
 
Lock said the Castle Hill and Parramatta branches had together attracted a significant number of new members, $30 million in mortgage lending and more than $100 million in deposits in their first year, even though COVID struck soon after opening.
 
The Macquarie Park Branch is due to open in September and the Tweed Heads Branch in October this year.

Heritage Bank has been chaired by Kerry Betros since 2012, a year after Heritage become a bank in 2011.



Heritage has reduced variable and fixed term interest rates for investors across many of its mortgage products from June 3 

Out of cycle fixed and variable investor loan rate cuts at Heritage Bank

The RBA have held interest rates at a record low 0.1 per cent at the June meeting.

RBA Governor Philip Lowe noted in his meeting statement the increased borrowing by investors in the housing market.

&quot;Housing markets have strengthened further, with prices rising in all major markets. Housing credit growth has picked up, with strong demand from owner-occupiers, especially first-home buyers,&quot; Dr Lowe said.

&quot;There has also been increased borrowing by investors.

&quot;Given the environment of rising housing prices and low interest rates, the Bank will be monitoring trends in housing borrowing carefully and it is important that lending standards are maintained.

Finder&#39;s RBA Cash Rate Survey found that over three quarters of experts surveyed believe the cash rate won&#39;t rise until Q4 2022 or later.

Around 60 per cent of experts expect the cash rate to increase in 2023 or later.&nbsp; Just under 10 per cent believe the cash rate could increase before the end of 2021.

AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver said that while the economic recovery is faster than expected, the RBA&rsquo;s conditions for a rate hike are still far from being met.

&quot;The jobs market is still a long way from full employment, wages growth at 1.5% is way below the 3% plus pace necessary to sustain two to three per cent&nbsp;inflation and in any case inflation is still well below its target zone. So a rate hike remains some time off.&quot;

Despite market sentiment, and the RBA&#39;s steadfast view rates won&#39;t move until 2024, banks across Australia have been hiking their four-year fixed home loan rates.

According to Ratecity, at the start of the year&nbsp;were 32 four-year fixed rates under two&nbsp;per cent, including from three of the big four banks. Following BankVic&#39;s recent hike, there now isn&#39;t a single lender offering under two per cent for a four year fixed.

RateCity.com.au research director, Sally Tindall, said the pack was tightening as some lenders took some record low rates off the table, while others trimmed rates to become more competitive.

&ldquo;A number of record low rates have been relegated to the history books over the last two months, as lenders took some of the lowest rates off the table,&rdquo; Tindall&nbsp;said.

&ldquo;There are now just two rates that are still at record lows &ndash; Reduce Home Loan&rsquo;s variable rate at 1.77 per cent and BCU&rsquo;s 1-year fixed rate at 1.67 per cent. All the other lowest rates have been hiked.

&ldquo;We expect more fixed rates will rise after the RBA&rsquo;s term funding facility wraps up at the end of this month and we edge closer to the next cash rate hike.&quot;

Finder's RBA Cash Rate Survey found that over three quarters of experts surveyed believe the cash rate won't rise until Q4 2022 or later

Joel Robinson

RBA holds rates at June meeting

RBA Governor Philip Lowe&#39;s meeting statement

At its meeting today, the Board decided to maintain the current policy settings, including: the targets of 10&nbsp;basis points for the cash rate and the yield on the 3-year Australian Government bond; the parameters of the government bond purchase program; and the rate of zero per&nbsp;cent on Exchange Settlement balances.

The global economy is continuing to recover from the pandemic and the outlook is for strong growth this year and next. The recovery remains uneven, though, and some countries are yet to contain the virus. Global trade in goods has picked up strongly and commodity prices are mostly higher than at the start of the year. However, inflation in underlying terms remains low and below central bank targets.

Sovereign bond yields have been steady recently after increasing earlier in the year due to the positive news on vaccines and the additional fiscal stimulus in the United States. Medium-term inflation expectations have lifted from near record lows to be closer to central banks&#39; targets. The 3-year government bond yield in Australia is consistent with the Board&#39;s target and lending rates for most borrowers are at record lows. The Australian dollar remains in the upper end of the range of recent years.

The economic recovery in Australia is stronger than earlier expected and is forecast to continue. The Bank&#39;s central scenario is for GDP to grow by 4&frac34;&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent over this year and 3&frac12;&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent over 2022. This outlook is supported by fiscal measures and very accommodative financial conditions. An important ongoing source of uncertainty is the possibility of significant outbreaks of the virus, although this should diminish as more of the population is vaccinated.

Progress in reducing unemployment has been faster than expected, with the unemployment rate declining to 5.5&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent in April. Job vacancies are at a high level and a further decline in the unemployment rate to around 5&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent is expected by the end of this year. There are reports of labour shortages in some parts of the economy.

Despite the strong recovery in the economy and jobs, inflation and wage pressures are subdued. While a pick-up in inflation and wages growth is expected, it is likely to be only gradual and modest. In the central scenario, inflation in underlying terms is expected to be 1&frac12;&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent in 2021 and 2&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent in mid&nbsp;2023. In the short term, CPI inflation is expected to rise temporarily to be above 3&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent in the June quarter because of the reversal of some&nbsp;COVID-19-related price reductions.

Housing markets have strengthened further, with prices rising in all major markets. Housing credit growth has picked up, with strong demand from owner-occupiers, especially first-home buyers. There has also been increased borrowing by investors. Given the environment of rising housing prices and low interest rates, the Bank will be monitoring trends in housing borrowing carefully and it is important that lending standards are maintained.

As foreshadowed last month, at its July meeting the Board will consider whether to retain the April 2024 bond as the target bond for the 3-year yield target or to shift to the next maturity, the November 2024 bond. The Board is not considering a change to the target of 10&nbsp;basis points. At the July meeting the Board will also consider future bond purchases following the completion of the second $100&nbsp;billion of purchases under the government bond purchase program in September. The Board continues to place a high priority on a return to full employment.

The date for final drawings under the Term Funding Facility is 30&nbsp;June 2021. So far, authorised deposit-taking institutions have drawn $134&nbsp;billion under this facility and a further $75&nbsp;billion is available. The facility is providing low-cost fixed-rate funding for 3&nbsp;years and so will continue to support low borrowing costs until mid&nbsp;2024.

The Board is committed to maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions to support a return to full employment in Australia and inflation consistent with the target. It will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2&nbsp;to 3&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent target range. For this to occur, the labour market will need to be tight enough to generate wages growth that is materially higher than it is currently. This is unlikely to be until 2024 at the earliest.

The RBA kept the official cash rate at record lows at its June meeting



RBA hold rates, cite increase borrowing from investors: RBA Governor Philip Lowe's June 2021 meeting statement

Australia's 30 plus days mortgage arrears in 1Q21 were up by only 4bp to 1.05 percent on the previous quarter, with Fitch Ratings expecting a bigger rise in the current quarter, after the payment deferral period ended on 31 March.

Fitch's Dinkum RMBS Index tracks arrears and performance of mortgages underlying public Australian prime RMBS.

The update advised RMBS transactions losses from the sale of collateral property were the lowest since the 2007-08 global financial crisis, with lenders' mortgage insurance payments and excess spread being sufficient to cover principal shortfalls in all transactions. 

Fitch expects losses to stay low due to a recovering economy and strong home-price growth. 

However Fitch Ratings expects the Dinkum RMBS Index to rise in the next quarter, as the payment deferral period ended on 31 March 2021 and government pandemic-related support measures, such as JobKeeper, have been rolled back.

"The recovery in home prices remained strong, with Australia's eight capital cities recording the highest quarterly increase in more than a decade of 5.6%," it noted.

Prices were up by 4.8% yoy, as all capital cities registered positive growth, some at double-digits. 

Fitch expects prices to continue to increase, supported by record-low mortgage rates, a recovering economy and government incentives for housing, particularly for first-home buyers.



Australia's 30+ days mortgage arrears in 1Q21 were up by only 4bp to 1.05% from the previous quarter

Fitch expect mortgage arrears to rise in current quarter, but stay low

The NAB has cut its variable investor interest-only rate by 30 basis points to 2.99 per cent.

The big four lender also cut its variable principle and interest loan for investors with an 80 per cent or less loan/value ratio to 2.79 per cent last week.

“NAB wants a bigger slice of the action in the investor market and have been tweaking both their serviceability rules and their rates to attract new business, after losing ground to its competitors in this arena," 
RateCity.com.au research director Sally Tindall said.

With new lending to investors in March growing the fastest rate in 18 years, the NAB was attempting to increase its share.

“These are our lowest ever advertised variable rates for property investors,” NAB executive for home ownership Andy Kerr told The Australian.

NAB offers the lowest rate for that class of loan of the big four banks, but smaller lenders have lower offers.

Citi is offering 2.59 per cent, ING 2.64 per cent, HSBC and Macquarie 2.69 per cent and UBank 2.74 per cent.

Last week the NAB’s group chief economist Alan Oster noted the recent small rises in four and five-year fixed-rate home loans for owner occupiers reflected growing inflationary fears in the bond market however borrowers are unlikely to be caught out by steeper rises until 2025.

Oster said adjustments in longer term fixed-rate loans are the result of a sell-off on the bond market as investors worry there is too much stimulus in the market and central banks will need to begin tightening, the AFR noted.

The big four lender also cut its variable principle and interest loan for investors with an 80 per cent or less loan/value ratio to 2.79 per cent last week

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