NAB sees no 2019 cash rate rise, and possibly the next move down

NAB sees no 2019 cash rate rise, and possibly the next move down
NAB sees no 2019 cash rate rise, and possibly the next move down

National Australia Bank economists no longer forecast a 2019 rate rise from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

The bank has join those who believe there possibly could be a rate cut before the end of this year.

The economists said they no longer expected the RBA to hike rates in late 2020, a prediction they made as recent as late 2018.

"We ... now expect the cash rate to remain on hold over the forecast horizon," the bank's economists advised in a research note released today.

"While our central case is for the cash rate to remain on hold, based on the balance of risk, the next move could well be down - potentially as soon as H2 2019."

The RBA has kept rates at 1.5 per cent since August 2016, but last week itself shifted from a bias toward rate hikes to a more neutral stance.

"In particular, we see ongoing slow wage growth, falling savings rates, high debt levels and falling house prices as ongoing headwinds," NAB said in a note authored by chief economist Alan Oster, global head of research Ivan Colhoun and senior economist Gareth Spence.

"Our forecasts raise the question as to why the RBA would not move to give the economy some further support," they said.

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cash rate Nab

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