RBA tipped to hold at 2017 Cup Day rate meeting

RBA tipped to hold at 2017 Cup Day rate meeting
RBA tipped to hold at 2017 Cup Day rate meeting

All 30 panelists in the monthly Finder.com.au survey of the RBA rate decision suggested the central bank will hold at the November 2017 meeting.

There reasons are below:

Jordan​ ​Eliseo,​ ​ABC​ ​Bullion:​ ​(Hold)​ "Despite​ ​concerns​ ​about​ ​a​ ​slowdown​ ​in​ ​retail​ ​sales​ ​growth over​ ​the​ ​last​ ​few​ ​months​ ​-​ ​the​ ​RBA​ ​still​ ​appear​ ​confident​ ​in​ ​the​ ​outlook​ ​for​ ​the​ ​Australian economy,​ ​though​ ​their​ ​rhetoric​ ​around​ ​tightening​ ​policy​ ​has​ ​changed​ ​appropriately.​ ​We​ ​still see​ ​the​ ​next​ ​move​ ​as​ ​down,​ ​but​ ​it​ ​will​ ​not​ ​come​ ​until​ ​Q1​ ​2018​ ​at​ ​the​ ​earliest." 

Tim​ ​Nelson,​ ​AGL​ ​Energy:​ ​(Hold)​ "Little​ ​change​ ​in​ ​conditions." 

Shane​ ​Oliver,​ ​AMP​ ​Capital:​ ​(Hold)​ "RBA​ ​expectations​ ​for​ ​stronger​ ​growth​ ​ahead,​ ​high​ ​levels of​ ​business​ ​confidence​ ​and​ ​strong​ ​employment​ ​growth​ ​all​ ​argue​ ​against​ ​a​ ​rate​ ​cut.​ ​But​ ​a slowdown​ ​in​ ​the​ ​housing​ ​cycle,​ ​risks​ ​around​ ​consumer​ ​spending,​ ​weak​ ​wages​ ​growth​ ​and inflation​ ​and​ ​the​ ​too​ ​high​ ​Australian​ ​dollar​ ​argue​ ​against​ ​a​ ​rate​ ​hike.​ ​So​ ​the​ ​most​ ​likely outcome​ ​is​ ​rates​ ​remaining​ ​on​ ​hold​ ​-​ ​out​ ​to​ ​late​ ​2017​ ​at​ ​least." 

Paul​ ​Dales,​ ​Capital​ ​Economics:​ ​(Hold)​ "The​ ​economy​ ​and​ ​inflation​ ​are​ ​not​ ​strong​ ​enough​ ​to warrant​ ​higher​ ​interest​ ​rates,​ ​but​ ​nor​ ​are​ ​they​ ​weak​ ​enough​ ​to​ ​justify​ ​lower​ ​interest​ ​rates.​ ​" 

Michael​ ​Blythe,​ ​CBA:​ ​(Hold)​ "Low​ ​inflation​ ​means​ ​[there​ ​is]​ ​no​ ​rush​ ​to​ ​act." 

Peter​ ​Gilmore,​ ​Gateway​ ​Credit​ ​Union:​ ​(Hold)​ "Looks​ ​like​ ​we​ ​are​ ​in​ ​an​ ​inflation​ ​trap." 

Scott​ ​Morgan,​ ​Greater​ ​Bank:​ ​(Hold)​ "Domestic​ ​economic​ ​data​ ​is​ ​mixed​ ​and​ ​does​ ​not​ ​yet support​ ​a​ ​move." 

Mark​ ​Brimble,​ ​Griffith​ ​Uni:​ ​(Hold)​ "Economy​ ​is​ ​still​ ​struggling​ ​to​ ​gather​ ​any​ ​meaningful moment." 

Shane​ ​Garrett,​ ​Housing​ ​Industry​ ​Association:​ ​(Hold)​ ​"No​ ​need​ ​to​ ​increase​ ​rates​ ​at​ ​this​ ​time: economic​ ​growth​ ​has​ ​to​ ​have​ ​enough​ ​space​ ​to​ ​recover​ ​to​ ​its​ ​trend​ ​rate​ ​and​ ​inflationary pressures​ ​are​ ​weaker​ ​than​ ​expected." 

Paul​ ​Bloxham,​ ​HSBC:​ ​(Hold)​ "Inflation​ ​is​ ​still​ ​below​ ​target." 

Alex​ ​Joiner,​ ​IFM​ ​Investors:​ ​(Hold)​ "Economic​ ​signals​ ​are​ ​mixed,​ ​especially​ ​outside​ ​the​ ​labour market.​ ​Added​ ​to​ ​this​ ​inflationary​ ​pressures​ ​are​ ​subdued​ ​and​ ​wages​ ​growth​ ​are​ ​anticipated​ ​to remain​ ​soft." 

Michael​ ​Witts,​ ​ING​ ​Bank:​ ​(Hold)​ "The​ ​RBA​ ​is​ ​comfortable​ ​with​ ​the​ ​current​ ​setting​ ​of​ ​rates​ ​and does​ ​not​ ​appear​ ​to​ ​be​ ​in​ ​a​ ​rush​ ​to​ ​change​ ​the​ ​policy​ ​settings.​ ​the​ ​low​ ​CPI​ ​print​ ​supports​ ​a further​ ​extension​ ​of​ ​stable​ ​rates." 

Leanne​ ​Pilkington,​ ​Laing+Simmons:​ ​(Hold)​ "Recent​ ​data​ ​pointing​ ​to​ ​flat​ ​price​ ​growth​ ​and subdued​ ​clearance​ ​rates​ ​reinforce​ ​the​ ​case​ ​for​ ​a​ ​hold​ ​decision.​ ​Of​ ​course,​ ​the​ ​housing​ ​market is​ ​more​ ​complicated​ ​than​ ​this,​ ​with​ ​different​ ​suburban​ ​markets​ ​performing​ ​according​ ​to​ ​their own​ ​fundamentals." 

Matthew​ ​Tiller,​ ​LJ​ ​Hooker:​ ​(Hold)​ "Despite​ ​strong​ ​employment​ ​numbers,​ ​inflation​ ​and​ ​wage growth​ ​remain​ ​soft.​ ​Property​ ​price​ ​growth​ ​has​ ​moderated,​ ​relieving​ ​pressure​ ​on​ ​the​ ​RBA​ ​to shift​ ​rated." 

Stephen​ ​Koukoulas,​ ​Market​ ​Economics:​ ​(Hold)​ "RBA​ ​will​ ​continue​ ​to​ ​ignore​ ​weak​ ​inflation and​ ​wage​ ​results​ ​and​ ​instead​ ​create​ ​a​ ​perception​ ​of​ ​concerns​ ​about​ ​financial​ ​stability.​ ​A​ ​rate cut​ ​is​ ​long​ ​overdue.” 

John​ ​Caelli,​ ​ME:​ ​(Hold)​ "The​ ​RBA​ ​has​ ​signalled​ ​the​ ​next​ ​move​ ​will​ ​be​ ​up." 

Michael​ ​Yardney,​ ​Metropole​ ​Property​ ​Strategists:​ ​(Hold)​ "Our​ ​housing​ ​markets​ ​have​ ​slowed down,​ ​so​ ​there​ ​is​ ​no​ ​need​ ​for​ ​the​ ​RBA​ ​to​ ​raise​ ​rates,​ ​and​ ​even​ ​though​ ​inflation​ ​is​ ​below​ ​target and​ ​the​ ​economy​ ​is​ ​flat,​ ​they​ ​dare​ ​not​ ​lower​ ​rates​ ​in​ ​fear​ ​of​ ​fuelling​ ​the​ ​property​ ​markets." 

Mark​ ​Crosby,​ ​Monash​ ​University:​ ​(Hold)​ "Pressures​ ​to​ ​cut​ ​rates​ ​have​ ​diminished​ ​to​ ​near zero,​ ​so​ ​the​ ​question​ ​now​ ​is​ ​on​ ​the​ ​timing​ ​of​ ​rate​ ​increases​ ​-​ ​which​ ​should​ ​hinge​ ​on international​ ​developments." 

Jessica​ ​Darnbrough,​ ​Mortgage​ ​Choice:​ ​(Hold)​ "The​ ​domestic​ ​and​ ​international​ ​economies are​ ​starting​ ​to​ ​show​ ​signs​ ​of​ ​improvement,​ ​which​ ​could​ ​encourage​ ​the​ ​Reserve​ ​Bank​ ​to​ ​lift the​ ​cash​ ​rate​ ​at​ ​some​ ​point​ ​over​ ​the​ ​coming​ ​months.​ ​That​ ​said,​ ​for​ ​right​ ​now,​ ​inflation​ ​remains below​ ​target,​ ​which​ ​will​ ​no​ ​doubt​ ​lead​ ​the​ ​Board​ ​to​ ​leave​ ​the​ ​official​ ​cash​ ​rate​ ​on​ ​hold.​ ​" 

Chris​ ​Schade,​ ​MyState​ ​Bank:​ ​(Hold)​ "The​ ​economy​ ​is​ ​showing​ ​some​ ​promising​ ​signs, including​ ​the​ ​drag​ ​on​ ​growth​ ​from​ ​the​ ​unwinding​ ​of​ ​the​ ​mining​ ​investment​ ​boom​ ​being​ ​near its​ ​end,​ ​business​ ​confidence​ ​and​ ​conditions​ ​solid,​ ​strong​ ​levels​ ​of​ ​public​ ​infrastructure​ ​work, dwelling​ ​construction​ ​plateauing​ ​as​ ​opposed​ ​to​ ​declining,​ ​and​ ​quite​ ​high​ ​levels​ ​of​ ​job creation.​ ​There​ ​remain​ ​some​ ​weak​ ​spots​ ​however​ ​(e.g.​ ​wage​ ​growth,​ ​consumer​ ​confidence​ ​in their​ ​personal​ ​finances),​ ​and​ ​some​ ​areas​ ​of​ ​the​ ​economy​ ​that​ ​are​ ​in​ ​transition​ ​(e.g.​ ​housing market​ ​following​ ​numerous​ ​regulatory​ ​changes​ ​-​ ​albeit​ ​localised​ ​conditions​ ​vary​ ​widely). 

Overall,​ ​while​ ​it​ ​appears​ ​the​ ​economy​ ​is​ ​on​ ​the​ ​right​ ​track,​ ​the​ ​RBA​ ​will​ ​likely​ ​continue​ ​to​ ​hold the​ ​cash​ ​rate​ ​at​ ​1.5%​ ​and​ ​allow​ ​the​ ​economy​ ​some​ ​more​ ​time​ ​to​ ​develop.​ ​On​ ​current information,​ ​it​ ​would​ ​seem​ ​probable​ ​the​ ​RBA​ ​will​ ​hike​ ​in​ ​2018,​ ​most​ ​like​ ​the​ ​second​ ​half." 

Saul​ ​Eslake:​ ​(Hold)​ "The​ ​RBA's​ ​made​ ​it​ ​clear​ ​that​ ​it​ ​has​ ​no​ ​desire​ ​to​ ​cut​ ​rates​ ​further​ ​in​ ​the absence​ ​of​ ​any​ ​currently​ ​unforeseen​ ​negative​ ​shocks;​ ​while​ ​the​ ​data​ ​flow​ ​since​ ​the​ ​last meeting​ ​won't​ ​have​ ​done​ ​anything​ ​to​ ​prompt​ ​the​ ​RBA​ ​to​ ​bring​ ​forward​ ​any​ ​thoughts​ ​about tightening.​ ​In​ ​particular,​ ​the​ ​slightly​ ​lower-than-expected​ ​inflation​ ​outcomes​ ​for​ ​Q3​ ​have​ ​left 'underlying'​ ​inflation​ ​still​ ​below​ ​the​ ​RBA's​ ​target​ ​range." 

Jonathan​ ​Chancellor,​ ​Property​ ​Observer:​ ​(Hold)​ "The​ ​recent​ ​decisions​ ​of​ ​central​ ​bank​ ​board and​ ​other​ ​regulatory​ ​authorities​ ​may​ ​have​ ​faded​ ​in​ ​time,​ ​but​ ​are​ ​still​ ​working​ ​their​ ​way through​ ​the​ ​economy,​ ​so​ ​no​ ​need​ ​just​ ​yet​ ​for​ ​any​ ​fresh​ ​adjustment." 

Matthew​ ​Peter,​ ​QIC:​ ​(Hold)​ "The​ ​lack​ ​of​ ​inflation​ ​pressure​ ​takes​ ​out-of-play​ ​any​ ​chance​ ​of rate​ ​hikes​ ​over​ ​coming​ ​months.​ ​Rate​ ​cuts​ ​are​ ​off​ ​the​ ​table​ ​unless​ ​the​ ​labour​ ​market​ ​slumps and​ ​the​ ​housing​ ​market​ ​has​ ​showed​ ​sustains​ ​signs​ ​of​ ​cooling." 

Noel​ ​Whittaker,​ ​QUT:​ ​(Hold)​ ​"The​ ​housing​ ​boom​ ​is​ ​tapering​ ​off​ ​–​ ​there​ ​is​ ​no​ ​reason​ ​to​ ​raise rates​ ​to​ ​stifle​ ​demand." 

Nerida​ ​Conisbee,​ ​REA​ ​Group:​ ​(Hold)​ ​"Economy​ ​still​ ​not​ ​strong​ ​enough​ ​to​ ​increase​ ​and housing​ ​too​ ​volatile​ ​to​ ​cut." 

Janu​ ​Chan,​ ​St.George​ ​Bank:​ ​(Hold)​ ​"RBA​ ​is​ ​becoming​ ​increasingly​ ​optimistic​ ​in​ ​regards​ ​to the​ ​labour​ ​market​ ​and​ ​a​ ​recovery​ ​in​ ​non-mining​ ​investment.​ ​However,​ ​low​ ​inflation,​ ​slow wage​ ​growth,​ ​spare​ ​capacity​ ​still​ ​evident​ ​within​ ​the​ ​labour​ ​market​ ​suggests​ ​the​ ​RBA​ ​is​ ​still​ ​a way​ ​from​ ​raising​ ​rates." 

Brian​ ​Parker,​ ​Sunsuper:​ ​(Hold)​ "Not​ ​enough​ ​has​ ​changed​ ​in​ ​the​ ​last​ ​month​ ​for​ ​them​ ​to change​ ​course​ ​at​ ​this​ ​point." 

John​ ​Hewson,​ ​UNSW:​ ​(Hold)​ ​"Economic​ ​signs​ ​point​ ​to​ ​the​ ​cash​ ​rate​ ​staying​ ​where​ ​it​ ​is​ ​for quite​ ​a​ ​while,​ ​perhaps​ ​even​ ​for​ ​the​ ​next​ ​twelve​ ​months​ ​or​ ​more." 

Clement​ ​Tisdell,​ ​UQ-School​ ​of​ ​Economics:​ ​(Hold)​ ​"An​ ​increase​ ​may​ ​have​ ​a​ ​negative​ ​impact on​ ​economic​ ​sentiment​ ​at​ ​a​ ​time​ ​when​ ​the​ ​housing​ ​market​ ​effects​ ​have​ ​to​ ​be​ ​carefully managed." 

Other​ ​participants: 

Bill​ ​Evans,​ ​Westpac:​ ​(Hold) 

Tags: 
Rba Rate Decision Mortgages

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